Boston College vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsFSU
- Q3 1:03BCKye Robichaux 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)28–13
- Q3 5:19FSUKentron Poitier 29 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–13
- Q3 11:58BCKye Robichaux 4 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:25FSURyan Fitzgerald 24 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 5:05FSURyan Fitzgerald 31 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 9:58BCTreshaun Ward 13 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:56BCThomas Castellanos 4 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 4.8
- FSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassThomas Castellanos 10/16, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKye Robichaux 19 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTreshaun Ward 3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Uiagalelei 21/42, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKam Davis 3 CAR, 11 YDS
- RecKentron Poitier 3 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,204 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:19FSU +24%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q3 11:58BC +22%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 9:58BC +21%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q3 1:03BC +19%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 14:56BC +18%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 0:25FSU +10%
Ryan Fitzgerald 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Florida State?
Boston College 28, Florida State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 293 |
| 106 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 263 | Rushing yards | 21 |
| 18 | First downs | 13 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 21/42 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 39:09 | Possession | 20:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:05 BC punt on 4th & 5 at FSU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:03BCKye Robichaux 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)28–13
- Q3 5:19FSUKentron Poitier 29 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–13
- Q3 11:58BCKye Robichaux 4 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:25FSURyan Fitzgerald 24 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 5:05FSURyan Fitzgerald 31 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 9:58BCTreshaun Ward 13 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:56BCThomas Castellanos 4 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1676, BC Elo 1396 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -13.6 (82% to win) — 2.9 points clear of BC's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #9 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #11 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Florida State leads 16–6 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BC | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 (#74) | CORE overall | -13.2 (#111) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | -11 / +2 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 0.99 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →