Utah State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsUSC
- Q4 6:32USCA'Marion Peterson 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–48
- Q4 14:15USCJayden Maiava 7 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–41
- Q3 5:31USCQuinten Joyner 2 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:04USCMakai Lemon 6 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)0–27
- Q2 1:41USCMichael Lantz 24 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 13:06USCWoody Marks 2 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:23USCQuinten Joyner 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:13USCMichael Lantz 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassBryson Barnes 18/27, 103 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRahsul Faison 9 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecJalen Royals 6 REC, 47 YDS
- PassMiller Moss 21/30, 229 YDS, 1 TD
- RushWoody Marks 13 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLake McRee 4 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:23USC +8%
Quinten Joyner run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. USC?
Utah State 0, USC 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| USU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 190 | Total yards | 544 |
| 103 | Passing yards | 295 |
| 87 | Rushing yards | 249 |
| 10 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-64 | Penalties | 4-27 |
| 27:07 | Possession | 32:53 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:32USCA'Marion Peterson 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–48
- Q4 14:15USCJayden Maiava 7 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–41
- Q3 5:31USCQuinten Joyner 2 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:04USCMakai Lemon 6 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)0–27
- Q2 1:41USCMichael Lantz 24 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 13:06USCWoody Marks 2 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:23USCQuinten Joyner 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:13USCMichael Lantz 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1668, USU Elo 1346 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -15.3 (84% to win) — 14.2 points clear of USU's market line of -29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#105) | CORE overall | +16.0 (#21) |
| +1 / +12 | offense / defense | +12 / -4 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 2.05 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →