Penn State vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsWIS
- Q4 4:13WISWISCONSIN 48 yard field goal GOOD.31–24
- Q4 5:38WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.31–21
- Q4 5:38WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.31–20
- Q4 12:59PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.31–14
- Q4 12:59PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.30–14
- Q3 4:56PSUPENN ST 28 yard field goal GOOD.24–14
- Q3 8:29PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 8:29PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 1:16PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 1:16PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–14
- Q2 5:05WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 5:05WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q2 11:50WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 11:50WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 13:05PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:05PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassChristian Hackenberg 21/30, 339 YDS, 4 TD
- RushZach Zwinak 22 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecAllen Robinson 8 REC, 122 YDS
- PassJoel Stave 29/53, 339 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushMelvin Gordon III 13 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecJared Abbrederis 12 REC, 135 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:29PSU +22%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 7 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 13:50PSU +17%
Zach Zwinak rush for 8 yards to the PnSt 46
- Q4 12:59PSU +16%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Eugene Lewis for 59 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:56PSU +14%
Sam Ficken 28 yard field goal GOOD
- Q4 4:02PSU +13%
Zach Zwinak rush for 5 yards to the PnSt 22
- Q4 4:13WIS +12%
Jack Russell 48 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Wisconsin?
Penn State 31, Wisconsin 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PSU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 459 |
| 339 | Passing yards | 339 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 13 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 29/55 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-45 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 28:50 | Possession | 30:11 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:12 WIS punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:13WISWISCONSIN 48 yard field goal GOOD.31–24
- Q4 5:38WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.31–21
- Q4 5:38WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.31–20
- Q4 12:59PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.31–14
- Q4 12:59PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.30–14
- Q3 4:56PSUPENN ST 28 yard field goal GOOD.24–14
- Q3 8:29PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 8:29PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 1:16PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 1:16PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–14
- Q2 5:05WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 5:05WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q2 11:50WISWISCONSIN Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 11:50WISWISCONSIN pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 13:05PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:05PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 2044, PSU Elo 1560 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -21.8 (92% to win) — 2.7 points clear of PSU's market line of -24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #6 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Penn State leads 12–9 · Penn State has won 6 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →