Iowa vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsNEB
- Q4 3:33IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.38–17
- Q4 3:33IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.37–17
- Q4 9:17IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.31–17
- Q4 9:17IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.30–17
- Q4 11:25NEBNEBRASKA Extra point GOOD.24–17
- Q4 11:25NEBNEBRASKA pass complete for a touchdown.24–16
- Q3 4:46IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.24–10
- Q3 4:46IOWAIOWA pass complete for a touchdown.23–10
- Q3 6:04IOWAIOWA 31 yard field goal GOOD.17–10
- Q3 10:14NEBNEBRASKA Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q3 10:14NEBNEBRASKA rush for a touchdown.14–9
- Q2 0:31NEBNEBRASKA 33 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
- Q2 5:15IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q2 5:15IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 0:16IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 0:16IOWAIOWA pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassJake Rudock 9/15, 126 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMark Weisman 25 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKevonte Martin-Manley 2 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRon Kellogg III 19/37, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAmeer Abdullah 23 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Bell 7 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:46IOWA +22%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 10:14NEB +19%
Ameer Abdullah rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:16IOWA +17%
Jake Rudock pass complete to C.J. Fiedorowicz for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:15IOWA +15%
Mark Weisman rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 11:25NEB +14%
Ron Kellogg III pass complete to Quincy Enunwa for 15 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 6:04IOWA +12%
Mike Meyer 31 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Nebraska?
Iowa 38, Nebraska 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| IOWA | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total yards | 288 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 9/17 | Comp/Att | 19/37 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 30:41 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:38 IOWA punt on 4th & 3 at NEB 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:33IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.38–17
- Q4 3:33IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.37–17
- Q4 9:17IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.31–17
- Q4 9:17IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.30–17
- Q4 11:25NEBNEBRASKA Extra point GOOD.24–17
- Q4 11:25NEBNEBRASKA pass complete for a touchdown.24–16
- Q3 4:46IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.24–10
- Q3 4:46IOWAIOWA pass complete for a touchdown.23–10
- Q3 6:04IOWAIOWA 31 yard field goal GOOD.17–10
- Q3 10:14NEBNEBRASKA Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q3 10:14NEBNEBRASKA rush for a touchdown.14–9
- Q2 0:31NEBNEBRASKA 33 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
- Q2 5:15IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q2 5:15IOWAIOWA rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 0:16IOWAIOWA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 0:16IOWAIOWA pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1685, IOWA Elo 1666 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #86 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Nebraska leads 26–20–1 · Iowa has won 3 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →