Texas vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsBYU
- Q3 1:31BYUBYU 24 yard field goal GOOD.21–40
- Q3 5:43BYUBYU 36 yard field goal GOOD.21–37
- Q3 8:24TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.21–34
- Q3 8:24TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.20–34
- Q3 10:02BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–34
- Q3 10:02BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–33
- Q2 0:04BYUBYU 32 yard field goal GOOD.14–27
- Q2 5:00BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–24
- Q2 5:00BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–23
- Q2 7:48BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–17
- Q2 7:48BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–16
- Q2 10:29TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q2 10:29TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.13–10
- Q1 2:17BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 2:17BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 3:21TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 3:21TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 12:11BYUBYU 34 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
How the model called it
- PassDavid Ash 19/34, 251 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJohnathan Gray 13 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecMike Davis 8 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTaysom Hill 9/26, 129 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTaysom Hill 17 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCody Hoffman 2 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:48BYU +19%
Taysom Hill rush for 20 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:21TEX +18%
David Ash pass complete to Mike Davis for 57 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 10:29TEX +18%
Joe Bergeron rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:17BYU +17%
Taysom Hill rush for 68 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:00BYU +17%
Paul Lasike rush for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:11BYU +8%
Justin Sorensen 34 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. BYU?
Texas 21, BYU 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| TEX | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 679 |
| 313 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 550 |
| 23 | First downs | 33 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 10-21 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/44 | Comp/Att | 9/27 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 8-68 |
| 28:59 | Possession | 31:01 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:31 BYU field goal on 4th & 1 at TEX 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:31BYUBYU 24 yard field goal GOOD.21–40
- Q3 5:43BYUBYU 36 yard field goal GOOD.21–37
- Q3 8:24TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.21–34
- Q3 8:24TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.20–34
- Q3 10:02BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–34
- Q3 10:02BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–33
- Q2 0:04BYUBYU 32 yard field goal GOOD.14–27
- Q2 5:00BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–24
- Q2 5:00BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–23
- Q2 7:48BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.14–17
- Q2 7:48BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.14–16
- Q2 10:29TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q2 10:29TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.13–10
- Q1 2:17BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 2:17BYUBYU rush for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 3:21TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 3:21TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 12:11BYUBYU 34 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1667, TEX Elo 1695 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -1.3 (55% to win) — 8.3 points clear of BYU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #68 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →