Rice vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsUAB
- Q4 7:42UABCorri Milliner 45 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–40
- Q4 11:01UABLee Beebe Jr. 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q2 0:00UABAdrian Maddox 99 Yd Interception Return (Jonah Delange Kick)14–27
- Q2 1:45UABJonah Delange 43 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 12:50UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 3:05RICEColin Giffen 5 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:28UABLee Beebe Jr. 48 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:10UABMalachi Holt-Bennett 5 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:28RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassE.J. Warner 28/49, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDean Connors 16 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraylen Walker 2 REC, 54 YDS
- PassJalen Kitna 18/23, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLee Beebe Jr. 16 CAR, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorri Milliner 6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,177 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:05RICE +21%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Colin Giffen for 5 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q2 0:00UAB +20%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Adrian Maddox return for 99 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 5:28UAB +19%
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 48 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 10:10UAB +17%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 5 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 10:28RICE +16%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q2 1:45UAB +10%
Jonah Delange 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. UAB?
Rice 14, UAB 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RICE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RICE | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 364 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 28/49 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-62 | Penalties | 11-110 |
| 30:44 | Possession | 29:16 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:50 RICE go for it on 4th & 12 at RICE 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:42UABCorri Milliner 45 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)14–40
- Q4 11:01UABLee Beebe Jr. 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q2 0:00UABAdrian Maddox 99 Yd Interception Return (Jonah Delange Kick)14–27
- Q2 1:45UABJonah Delange 43 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 12:50UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 3:05RICEColin Giffen 5 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:28UABLee Beebe Jr. 48 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:10UABMalachi Holt-Bennett 5 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:28RICEDean Connors 5 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1145, RICE Elo 1301 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +3.8 (41% to win) — 3.2 points clear of UAB's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #68 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →UAB leads 7–6 · 54% have been one-possession games
| RICE | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.8 (#76) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#89) |
| -5 / -2 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 2.16 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →