Utah Tech vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Utah Tech

0014

Missouri State0-1

▸0059

Final

Plaster Sports Complex

	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	7	7	0	0	14
MOST	14	24	14	7	59

UTAHTeam statsMOST

300Total yards672

173Pass462

127Rush210

18First downs23

4-133rd down7-11

4Turnovers2

29:03Possession30:57

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:26MOSTJakairi Moses 1 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–59
• Q3 3:50MOSTJayden Becks 50 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–52
• Q3 14:07MOSTTerique Owens 36 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–45
• Q2 0:20MOSTOwen Rozanc 38 Yd Field Goal 14–38
• Q2 4:50MOSTHunter Wood 10 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–35
• Q2 7:47UTAHKobe Tracy 1 Yd Run (Connor Brooksby Kick)14–28
• Q2 11:48MOSTHunter Wood 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–28
• Q2 14:41MOSTCeldon Manning 16 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–21
• Q1 5:44UTAHRonnie Walker Jr. 7 Yd Run (Connor Brooksby Kick)7–14
• Q1 6:34MOSTJ.J. O'Neal 10 Yd Interception Return (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:25MOSTTerique Owens 45 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• UTAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MOST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MOST 100%50%UTAH 100%

Kickoff155 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MOST (top)UTAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 100%

Leaders

Utah Tech

• PassKobe Tracy 17/41, 167 YDS, 4 INT
• RushChris Street 10 CAR, 62 YDS
• RecKeith Davis 2 REC, 61 YDS

Missouri State

• PassJacob Clark 19/26, 414 YDS, 5 TD
• RushJayden Becks 3 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
• RecTerique Owens 5 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MOST up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 182 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MOST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7WMontana State vs Stetson57-20WSouth Alabama vs UL Monroe55-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

MOST gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.UTAH 6/7 · MOST 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Utah Tech vs. Missouri State?

Utah Tech 14, Missouri State 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UTAH

MOST

37%

Success rate

55%

-0.26

EPA / pass

1.11

0.47

EPA / rush

0.29

38%

Early-down success

54%

22%

Pass success

62%

67%

Rush success

48%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

0%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

66%

Pass rate

52%

8.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

UTAH

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

MOST

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UTAH		MOST
300	Total yards	672
173	Passing yards	462
127	Rushing yards	210
18	First downs	23
4-13	3rd down	7-11
1-2	4th down	0-0
18/44	Comp/Att	24/31
3.9	Yards per pass	14.9
5.1	Yards per rush	6.8
4	Turnovers	2
6-75	Penalties	11-129
29:03	Possession	30:57

Fourth downs

13 calls

UTAH

6/7 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

MOST

3/4 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 5:50 MOST punt on 4th & 2 at MOST 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UTAH 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 8/14 scoring drives

MOSTFUM3 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q1

UTAHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 42Q1

MOSTFUM1 pl, 21 yds· own 47Q1

UTAHPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 27Q1

MOSTTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

UTAHTD2 pl, 1 yds· own 9Q1

UTAHTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1

MOSTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

UTAHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTTD3 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q2

UTAHTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

UTAHMISS9 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2

MOSTFG5 pl, 51 yds· own 28Q2

UTAHEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

UTAHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

MOSTTD3 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q3

UTAHINT3 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3

MOSTMISS5 pl, 22 yds· own 46Q3

UTAHDOWNS14 pl, 60 yds· own 32Q3

MOSTTD3 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3

UTAHPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

MOSTTD8 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3

UTAHPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q4

MOSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 11Q4

UTAHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 48Q4

MOSTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 20Q4

UTAHMISS9 pl, 48 yds· own 21Q4

MOSTEND2 pl, 4 yds· own 31Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:26MOSTJakairi Moses 1 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–59
• Q3 3:50MOSTJayden Becks 50 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–52
• Q3 14:07MOSTTerique Owens 36 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–45
• Q2 0:20MOSTOwen Rozanc 38 Yd Field Goal 14–38
• Q2 4:50MOSTHunter Wood 10 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–35
• Q2 7:47UTAHKobe Tracy 1 Yd Run (Connor Brooksby Kick)14–28
• Q2 11:48MOSTHunter Wood 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–28
• Q2 14:41MOSTCeldon Manning 16 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–21
• Q1 5:44UTAHRonnie Walker Jr. 7 Yd Run (Connor Brooksby Kick)7–14
• Q1 6:34MOSTJ.J. O'Neal 10 Yd Interception Return (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–14
• Q1 7:25MOSTTerique Owens 45 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →