Lindenwood vs. Southeast Missouri State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lindenwood1-0

07

Southeast Missouri State0-1

▸0045

Final

Houck FieldConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
LIND	0	0	0	7	7
SOUT	17	21	0	7	45

LINDTeam statsSOUT

250Total yards488

122Pass274

128Rush214

17First downs25

4-153rd down6-13

3Turnovers0

25:11Possession34:49

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:32SOUTDamoriea Vick 7 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)7–45
• Q4 13:38LINDCole Dugger 18 Yd Run (Logan Seibert Kick)7–38
• Q2 0:30SOUTHenry Pickens III 72 Yd Interception Return (DC Pippin Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:00SOUTGeno Hess 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)0–31
• Q2 12:32SOUTDamoriea Vick 28 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)0–24
• Q1 0:10SOUTGeno Hess 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)0–17
• Q1 4:14SOUTDC Pippin 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 9:52SOUTRyan Flournoy 2 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• LIND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 4.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%LIND 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)LIND (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

Leaders

Lindenwood

• PassCole Dugger 17/39, 122 YDS, 3 INT
• RushRobert Giaimo 15 CAR, 67 YDS
• RecChase Lanckriet 4 REC, 29 YDS

Southeast Missouri State

• PassPaxton DeLaurent 27/35, 267 YDS, 3 TD
• RushGeno Hess 20 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDamoriea Vick 10 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

152

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 182 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WMontana State vs Stetson57-20WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14WSouth Alabama vs UL Monroe55-7

Fourth downs

16 calls

LIND gave up 2.1 points to the model on fourth down.LIND 4/7 · SOUT 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lindenwood vs. Southeast Missouri State?

Lindenwood 7, Southeast Missouri State 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LIND

SOUT

35%

Success rate

54%

-0.30

EPA / pass

0.48

0.01

EPA / rush

0.29

35%

Early-down success

51%

37%

Pass success

49%

32%

Rush success

59%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

59%

Pass rate

45%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.9

LIND

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

4.9 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LIND		SOUT
250	Total yards	488
122	Passing yards	274
128	Rushing yards	214
17	First downs	25
4-15	3rd down	6-13
1-3	4th down	2-2
17/39	Comp/Att	29/37
3.1	Yards per pass	7.4
4.4	Yards per rush	5.2
3	Turnovers	0
2-30	Penalties	6-75
25:11	Possession	34:49

Fourth downs

16 calls

LIND

4/7 with the model

−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

3/6 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 2:58 LIND punt on 4th & 1 at LIND 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LIND 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 6/11 scoring drives

SOUTTD13 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1

LINDINT5 pl, 10 yds· own 24Q1

SOUTFG8 pl, 21 yds· opp 40Q1

LINDPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 21Q1

SOUTTD8 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

LINDPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTTD6 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2

LINDPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q2

SOUTTD9 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2

LINDPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 34Q2

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q2

LINDTD11 pl, 50 yds· own 20Q2

LINDEND3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

LINDDOWNS10 pl, 44 yds· own 31Q3

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3

LINDINT6 pl, 39 yds· own 10Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 44Q3

LINDTD13 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

SOUTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

LINDPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTPUNT7 pl, 17 yds· own 40Q4

LINDPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 14Q4

SOUTEND2 pl, -7 yds· midfieldQ4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:32SOUTDamoriea Vick 7 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)7–45
• Q4 13:38LINDCole Dugger 18 Yd Run (Logan Seibert Kick)7–38
• Q2 0:30SOUTHenry Pickens III 72 Yd Interception Return (DC Pippin Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:00SOUTGeno Hess 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)0–31
• Q2 12:32SOUTDamoriea Vick 28 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)0–24
• Q1 0:10SOUTGeno Hess 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)0–17
• Q1 4:14SOUTDC Pippin 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 9:52SOUTRyan Flournoy 2 Yd pass from Paxton DeLaurent (DC Pippin Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →