UAlbany vs. Hawai'i: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

UAlbany0-1

Hawai'i0-2

▸

Final

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

	1	2	3	4	T
UALB	7	10	3	0	20
HAW	10	7	7	7	31

UALBTeam statsHAW

239Total yards379

115Pass266

124Rush113

15First downs19

7-183rd down7-17

2Turnovers3

26:49Possession33:11

Q4 3:20HAWSteven McBride 12 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)20–31
Q3 3:32UALBJohn Opalko 32 Yd Field Goal 20–24
Q3 6:10HAWJalen Walthall 34 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)17–24
Q2 0:00UALBJohn Opalko 46 Yd Field Goal 17–17
Q2 3:34HAWSteven McBride 30 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–17
Q2 11:20UALBLarry Walker Jr. 35 Yd Interception Return (John Opalko Kick)14–10
Q1 0:09HAWJonah Panoke 4 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–10
Q1 7:56UALBReese Poffenbarger 41 Yd Run (John Opalko Kick)7–3
Q1 12:51HAWMatthew Shipley 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

HAW −10.5

Against the number

HAW covered

line HAW −10.5

What the numbers say

HAW lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 31% success rate

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

HAW (top)UALB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%

Closing line

HAW −10.5

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

UALB 20 – 31 HAW

UAlbany

PassReese Poffenbarger 10/31, 93 YDS, 1 INT
RushNate Larkins 11 CAR, 45 YDS
RecCaden Burti 4 REC, 52 YDS

Hawai'i

PassBrayden Schager 23/40, 266 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
RushJordan Johnson 11 CAR, 76 YDS
RecPofele Ashlock 4 REC, 74 YDS

24.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

146

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HAW up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,446 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

HAW went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13 LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13 LMorgan State vs Akron21-24 LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33 LWofford vs Presbyterian20-23

FAQ

What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Hawai'i?

UAlbany 20, Hawai'i 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.

UALB

HAW

29%

Success rate

31%

-0.31

EPA / pass

0.06

-0.05

EPA / rush

0.07

26%

Early-down success

27%

26%

Pass success

37%

32%

Rush success

23%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

26%

51%

Pass rate

60%

7.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

UALB

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

HAW

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

UALB		HAW
239	Total yards	379
115	Passing yards	266
124	Rushing yards	113
15	First downs	19
7-18	3rd down	7-17
0-2	4th down	2-4
11/32	Comp/Att	23/40
3.6	Yards per pass	6.7
3.4	Yards per rush	3.1
2	Turnovers	3
6-70	Penalties	11-100
26:49	Possession	33:11

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

UALBTeam statsHAW

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Hawai'i?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

UAlbany vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap

UALBTeam statsHAW

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Hawai'i?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?