Jackson State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Jackson State0-1
▸
Arkansas-Pine Bluff0-1
Final
Golden Lion StadiumConference game
JACKTeam statsARKA
475Total yards230
373Pass133
102Rush97
21First downs17
8-143rd down1-11
1Turnovers2
26:43Possession33:17
- Q4 7:29JACKDJ Stevens 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)40–14
- Q4 9:36JACKFabian McCray 32 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)33–14
- Q3 11:13ARKAMekhi Hagens 20 Yd Run (Dean Sarris Kick)26–14
- Q2 0:00JACKDylan Wasson 29 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q2 1:28ARKAKierstan Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dean Sarris Kick)23–7
- Q2 5:25JACKDJ Stevens 25 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)23–0
- Q2 14:11JACKDylan Wasson 24 Yd Field Goal 16–0
- Q1 4:55JACKHayden Hagler 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Dylan Wasson PAT failed)13–0
- Q1 14:29JACKDJ Stevens 70 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Dylan Wasson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
JACK −21
Against the number
JACK covered
line JACK −21
What the numbers say
- ARKA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JACK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 4.8
Kickoff157 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ARKA (top)JACK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARKA 0%
Closing line
JACK −21
Closing total
50.0
Model line
—
Actual result
JACK 40 – 14 ARKA
Jackson State
- PassJaCobian Morgan 26/36, 373 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ.D. Martin 9 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecFabian McCray 7 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- PassChancellor Edwards 16/26, 95 YDS
- RushMekhi Hagens 9 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaemon Dawkins 7 REC, 57 YDS
25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
140
Points / snap
0.39
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJACK up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
JACK went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Jackson State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff?
Jackson State 40, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARKA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
JACK
ARKA
49%
Success rate
30%
0.71
EPA / pass
-0.15
-0.02
EPA / rush
-0.04
46%
Early-down success
32%
51%
Pass success
30%
44%
Rush success
31%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
31%
61%
Pass rate
63%
4.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.9
JACK
4.8 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
ARKA
9.9 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
| JACK | ARKA | |
|---|---|---|
| 475 | Total yards | 230 |
| 373 | Passing yards | 133 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 97 |
| 21 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 26/36 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-66 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 26:43 | Possession | 33:17 |
JACK
3/4 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
ARKA
6/9 with the model
−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 9:34 ARKA go for it on 4th & 20 at JACK 27. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishJACK 7/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARKA 2/11 scoring drives
JACKTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ARKAFUM7 pl, 28 yds· own 29Q1
JACKPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 40Q1
ARKAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1
JACKTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
ARKAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q1
JACKFG10 pl, 39 yds· opp 46Q1
ARKAPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q2
JACKPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 19Q2
ARKAPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 31Q2
JACKTD6 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
ARKATD10 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2
JACKFG7 pl, 36 yds· opp 48Q2
ARKATD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3
JACKINT5 pl, 23 yds· own 12Q3
ARKAPUNT9 pl, -2 yds· opp 40Q3
JACKPUNT8 pl, 38 yds· own 14Q3
ARKAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 13Q4
JACKTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q4
ARKAINT2 pl, -5 yds· own 22Q4
JACKTD4 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q4
ARKADOWNS10 pl, 27 yds· own 32Q4
JACKEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 41Q4
- Q4 7:29JACKDJ Stevens 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)40–14
- Q4 9:36JACKFabian McCray 32 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)33–14
- Q3 11:13ARKAMekhi Hagens 20 Yd Run (Dean Sarris Kick)26–14
- Q2 0:00JACKDylan Wasson 29 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q2 1:28ARKAKierstan Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dean Sarris Kick)23–7
- Q2 5:25JACKDJ Stevens 25 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Leilani Armenta Kick)23–0
- Q2 14:11JACKDylan Wasson 24 Yd Field Goal 16–0
- Q1 4:55JACKHayden Hagler 4 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Dylan Wasson PAT failed)13–0
- Q1 14:29JACKDJ Stevens 70 Yd pass from Jacobian Morgan (Dylan Wasson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →