Grambling vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Grambling
LSU0-1
▸Final
Tiger Stadium (LA)
GRAMTeam statsLSU
320Total yards622
157Pass320
163Rush302
16First downs34
3-123rd down11-14
2Turnovers0
26:49Possession33:11
- Q4 9:15LSUTeam Safety 10–72
- Q4 10:39LSUNoah Cain 1 Yd Run (Nathan Dibert Kick)10–70
- Q4 13:30LSUKaleb Jackson 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–63
- Q3 4:47LSUKaleb Jackson 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–56
- Q3 9:30LSUGarrett Nussmeier 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:01LSUKyren Lacy 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–42
- Q2 2:00LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:22LSULogan Diggs 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–28
- Q2 14:17LSUMalik Nabers 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–21
- Q1 2:21GRAMTanner Rinker 23 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 8:24LSUChris Hilton Jr. 47 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:15GRAMJR Waters 13 Yd pass from Myles Crawley (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:16LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
LSU −56.5
Against the number
LSU covered
line LSU −56.5
What the numbers say
- GRAM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 4.5
- GRAM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 35% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
LSU (top)GRAM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LSU 100%
Closing line
LSU −56.5
Closing total
61.5
Model line
—
Actual result
GRAM 10 – 72 LSU
Grambling
- PassMyles Crawley 14/25, 148 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChance Williams 7 CAR, 106 YDS
- RecAntonio Jones 7 REC, 81 YDS
LSU
- PassJayden Daniels 18/24, 269 YDS, 5 TD
- RushLogan Diggs 15 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Nabers 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
145
Points / snap
0.57
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 105 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
LSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Grambling vs. LSU?
Grambling 10, LSU 72.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
GRAM
LSU
35%
Success rate
60%
0.02
EPA / pass
0.68
0.35
EPA / rush
0.49
36%
Early-down success
56%
33%
Pass success
53%
37%
Rush success
66%
17%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
20%
7%
Stuffed rush rate
9%
55%
Pass rate
45%
9.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.5
GRAM
9.3 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
LSU
4.5 yards to go on 3rd down
85 scrimmage snaps
| GRAM | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 622 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 302 |
| 16 | First downs | 34 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 11-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/31 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 13-104 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 26:49 | Possession | 33:11 |
GRAM
6/7 with the model
−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
LSU
2/3 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 9:15 GRAM go for it on 4th & 17 at GRAM 18. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishGRAM 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →LSU 10/11 scoring drives
LSUTD8 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1
GRAMTD7 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
LSUTD3 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
GRAMFG12 pl, 80 yds· own 14Q1
LSUTD7 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
GRAMMISS9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q2
LSUTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
GRAMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 23Q2
LSUTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2
GRAMPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
LSUTD10 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2
GRAMINT5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q3
LSUTD6 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
GRAMPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 9Q3
LSUTD7 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q3
GRAMPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 19Q3
LSUTD10 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3
GRAMFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 21Q4
LSUTD5 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q4
GRAMSAF4 pl, -25 yds· own 25Q4
LSUDOWNS8 pl, 38 yds· own 41Q4
GRAMEND8 pl, 51 yds· own 21Q4
- Q4 9:15LSUTeam Safety 10–72
- Q4 10:39LSUNoah Cain 1 Yd Run (Nathan Dibert Kick)10–70
- Q4 13:30LSUKaleb Jackson 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–63
- Q3 4:47LSUKaleb Jackson 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–56
- Q3 9:30LSUGarrett Nussmeier 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:01LSUKyren Lacy 3 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–42
- Q2 2:00LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:22LSULogan Diggs 3 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–28
- Q2 14:17LSUMalik Nabers 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)10–21
- Q1 2:21GRAMTanner Rinker 23 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 8:24LSUChris Hilton Jr. 47 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:15GRAMJR Waters 13 Yd pass from Myles Crawley (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:16LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →