Fordham vs. Buffalo: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Fordham

▸

Buffalo0-1

Final

UB Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
FORD	3	17	6	14	40
BUF	14	7	9	7	37

FORDTeam statsBUF

459Total yards362

309Pass265

150Rush97

27First downs23

11-193rd down5-11

0Turnovers1

34:14Possession25:46

Q4 2:32FORDMJ Wright 15 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)40–37
Q4 8:03BUFMarlyn Johnson 36 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)33–37
Q4 12:46FORDGarrett Cody 2 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)33–30
Q3 3:13BUFMike Washington 5 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)26–30
Q3 7:33BUFClevester Hines III Defensive PAT Conversion26–23
Q3 7:33FORDJulius Loughridge 9 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin PAT failed)26–21
Q2 0:15FORDBrandon Peskin 44 Yd Field Goal 20–21
Q2 1:53FORDMekai Felton 12 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)17–21
Q2 11:10FORDMekai Felton 9 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)10–21
Q2 14:16BUFDarrell Harding Jr. 15 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)3–21
Q1 3:40FORDBrandon Peskin 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
Q1 10:06BUFMarlyn Johnson 22 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)0–14
Q1 10:47BUFMike Washington 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

BUF −23.5

Against the number

FORD covered

line BUF −23.5

Kickoff148 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BUF (top)FORD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 0%

Closing line

BUF −23.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

FORD 40 – 37 BUF

Fordham

PassCJ Montes 23/36, 309 YDS, 5 TD
RushJulius Loughridge 20 CAR, 106 YDS
RecMJ Wright 7 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD

Buffalo

PassCole Snyder 24/30, 265 YDS, 3 TD
RushMike Washington Jr. 13 CAR, 57 YDS, 2 TD
RecMarlyn Johnson 7 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD

24.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.55

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUF up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,446 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

BUF went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13 LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13 LMorgan State vs Akron21-24 LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33 WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

FAQ

What was the final score of Fordham vs. Buffalo?

Fordham 40, Buffalo 37.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

FORD

BUF

41%

Success rate

54%

0.48

EPA / pass

0.67

0.07

EPA / rush

0.01

35%

Early-down success

54%

48%

Pass success

59%

34%

Rush success

48%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

22%

53%

Pass rate

54%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

FORD

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

BUF

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

FORD		BUF
459	Total yards	362
309	Passing yards	265
150	Rushing yards	97
27	First downs	23
11-19	3rd down	5-11
2-2	4th down	2-3
23/36	Comp/Att	24/30
8.6	Yards per pass	8.8
3.5	Yards per rush	3.2
0	Turnovers	1
9-63	Penalties	8-56
34:14	Possession	25:46

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

FORDTeam statsBUF

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Fordham vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

The matchup, in context

Fordham vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap

FORDTeam statsBUF

How the model called it

What was the final score of Fordham vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?