Florida vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsSC
- Q4 14:14FLARick Wells 9 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Chris Howard Kick)17–40
- Q3 2:53SCJaheim Bell 8 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)10–40
- Q3 8:04SCParker White 39 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q2 0:46SCJabari Ellis 0 Yd Fumble Return (Parker White Kick)10–30
- Q2 1:13SCParker White 40 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q2 8:02SCJosh Vann 24 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)10–20
- Q2 11:31SCParker White 35 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 14:52FLAChris Howard 30 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 2:39SCJuju McDowell 2 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:47FLAXzavier Henderson 12 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Chris Howard Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:19SCParker White 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassEmory Jones 17/30, 258 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDameon Pierce 6 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecJustin Shorter 5 REC, 92 YDS
- PassJason Brown 14/24, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKevin Harris 16 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecJosh Vann 7 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 533 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:02SC +23%
Jason Brown pass complete to Josh Vann for 24 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
- Q2 0:46SC +19%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd Emory Jones fumbled, forced by Aaron Sterling, recovered by SCaro Jabari Ellis for a TD (Parker White KICK)
- Q1 2:39SC +14%
Juju McDowell run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
- Q2 1:13SC +13%
Parker White 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 4:47FLA +12%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Howard KICK)
- Q2 11:31SC +11%
Parker White 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. South Carolina?
Florida 17, South Carolina 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 459 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 82 | Rushing yards | 284 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/30 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-64 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 23:42 | Possession | 36:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:16 SC punt on 4th & 6 at FLA 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:14FLARick Wells 9 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Chris Howard Kick)17–40
- Q3 2:53SCJaheim Bell 8 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)10–40
- Q3 8:04SCParker White 39 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q2 0:46SCJabari Ellis 0 Yd Fumble Return (Parker White Kick)10–30
- Q2 1:13SCParker White 40 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q2 8:02SCJosh Vann 24 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)10–20
- Q2 11:31SCParker White 35 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 14:52FLAChris Howard 30 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 2:39SCJuju McDowell 2 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:47FLAXzavier Henderson 12 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Chris Howard Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:19SCParker White 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1321, FLA Elo 1753 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC +14.9 (18% to win) — 5.6 points clear of SC's market line of +20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #13 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Florida leads 31–10–3 · Florida has won 2 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| FLA | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#36) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#61) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | -0 / -3 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.11 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →