Idaho State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Idaho State1-1
▸
Nevada0-2
Final
Mackay Stadium
IDAHTeam statsNEV
383Total yards423
269Pass205
114Rush218
18First downs25
7-183rd down8-17
0Turnovers3
24:34Possession35:26
- Q4 0:58NEVWyatt Demps 3 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–28
- Q4 9:42NEVWyatt Demps 10 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Kaymen Cureton Pass to Trevion Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion)30–22
- Q3 7:10NEVBlake Wright 12 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)30–14
- Q3 10:00IDAHMichael Dean 50 Yd pass from Tanner Gueller (Parker Johnson Kick)30–7
- Q2 0:10IDAHParker Johnson 19 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 3:12IDAHHagen Graves 15 Yd pass from Tanner Gueller (Parker Johnson Kick)20–7
- Q2 9:27IDAHParker Johnson 36 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 11:31NEVMcLane Mannix 2 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Spencer Pettit Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:45IDAHTy Flanagan 1 Yd Run (Parker Johnson Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:57IDAHParker Johnson 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
NEV −34.5
Against the number
IDAH covered
line NEV −34.5
What the numbers say
- IDAH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NEV (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 0%
Closing line
NEV −34.5
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
IDAH 30 – 28 NEV
consensus, liveNEV −34.5
Idaho State
- PassTanner Gueller 19/38, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJames Madison 17 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecMichael Dean 5 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
Nevada
- PassKaymen Cureton 19/33, 205 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKelton Moore 21 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecMcLane Mannix 7 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
20.8sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
170
Points / snap
0.34
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIDAH up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
IDAH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho State vs. Nevada?
Idaho State 30, Nevada 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
IDAH
NEV
33%
Success rate
35%
0.20
EPA / pass
0.26
-0.08
EPA / rush
-0.00
29%
Early-down success
31%
35%
Pass success
31%
30%
Rush success
39%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
24%
Stuffed rush rate
14%
57%
Pass rate
45%
6.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.0
IDAH
6.4 yards to go on 3rd down
76 scrimmage snaps
NEV
7.0 yards to go on 3rd down
94 scrimmage snaps
| IDAH | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 423 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 18 | First downs | 25 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 19/38 | Comp/Att | 19/33 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 7-62 |
| 24:34 | Possession | 35:26 |
IDAH
6/10 with the model
−2.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
NEV
5/8 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 0:10 IDAH field goal on 4th & 2 at NEV 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishIDAH 6/15 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 4/15 scoring drives
NEVPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 35Q1
IDAHFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 31Q1
NEVINT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
IDAHTD6 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1
NEVDOWNS8 pl, 41 yds· opp 35Q1
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q1
NEVTD13 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
IDAHFG7 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q2
NEVFUM1 pl, 2 yds· opp 35Q2
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 43Q2
NEVDOWNS7 pl, 44 yds· own 13Q2
IDAHTD9 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2
NEVFUM5 pl, 9 yds· opp 35Q2
IDAHFG6 pl, 31 yds· opp 33Q2
NEVEND1 pl, 12 yds· opp 35Q2
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3
NEVPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 10Q3
IDAHTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
NEVTD8 pl, 65 yds· opp 35Q3
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 35Q3
NEVDOWNS5 pl, 24 yds· own 40Q3
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 36Q3
NEVPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 18Q3
IDAHDOWNS6 pl, 37 yds· own 30Q3
NEVTD12 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4
IDAHPUNT7 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4
NEVPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q4
IDAHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 29Q4
NEVTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4
IDAHEND2 pl, -3 yds· opp 43Q4
- Q4 0:58NEVWyatt Demps 3 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–28
- Q4 9:42NEVWyatt Demps 10 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Kaymen Cureton Pass to Trevion Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion)30–22
- Q3 7:10NEVBlake Wright 12 Yd Run (Spencer Pettit Kick)30–14
- Q3 10:00IDAHMichael Dean 50 Yd pass from Tanner Gueller (Parker Johnson Kick)30–7
- Q2 0:10IDAHParker Johnson 19 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 3:12IDAHHagen Graves 15 Yd pass from Tanner Gueller (Parker Johnson Kick)20–7
- Q2 9:27IDAHParker Johnson 36 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 11:31NEVMcLane Mannix 2 Yd pass from Kaymen Cureton (Spencer Pettit Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:45IDAHTy Flanagan 1 Yd Run (Parker Johnson Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:57IDAHParker Johnson 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIdaho State were +34.5 — a 2% shot
#15 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #2 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →