UAlbany vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UAlbany
▸
Buffalo
Final
UB Stadium
UALBTeam statsBUF
238Total yards403
113Pass177
125Rush226
12First downs23
1-113rd down5-17
0Turnovers4
27:08Possession32:52
- Q4 9:37UALBBrad Harris 35 Yd pass from Neven Sussman (Neven Sussman Pass to Brad Harris for Two-Point Conversion)22–16
- Q3 6:12BUFAdam Mitcheson 45 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 0:24BUFMason Schreck 17 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:42UALBElijah Ibitokun-Hanks 33 Yd Run (Ethan Stark Kick)14–6
- Q2 2:32BUFAdam Mitcheson 37 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 10:53BUFAdam Mitcheson 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:57UALBAnthony Manzo-Lewis 5 Yd pass from Neven Sussman (Ethan Stark Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
BUF −23
Against the number
UALB covered
line BUF −23
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BUF (top)UALB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 0%
Closing line
BUF −23
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
UALB 22 – 16 BUF
consensus, liveBUF −23
UAlbany
- PassNeven Sussman 14/21, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RushElijah Ibitokun-Hanks 23 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrad Harris 1 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
Buffalo
- PassTyree Jackson 14/25, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Johnson 23 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecMason Schreck 5 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
24.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
141
Points / snap
0.27
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
57%
BUF went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of UAlbany vs. Buffalo?
UAlbany 22, Buffalo 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
UALB
BUF
31%
Success rate
37%
0.24
EPA / pass
0.08
-0.14
EPA / rush
-0.02
36%
Early-down success
37%
33%
Pass success
34%
29%
Rush success
40%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
29%
Stuffed rush rate
11%
44%
Pass rate
48%
6.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.4
UALB
6.7 yards to go on 3rd down
55 scrimmage snaps
BUF
6.4 yards to go on 3rd down
86 scrimmage snaps
| UALB | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Total yards | 403 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 226 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/21 | Comp/Att | 17/34 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 9-79 | Penalties | 9-83 |
| 27:08 | Possession | 32:52 |
UALB
6/8 with the model
−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
BUF
8/10 with the model
−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 14:47 BUF punt on 4th & 1 at BUF 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishUALB 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BUF 4/13 scoring drives
BUFINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q1
UALBTD2 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 26Q1
UALBPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 15Q1
BUFMISS8 pl, 43 yds· own 23Q1
UALBPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 34Q1
BUFINT5 pl, 18 yds· own 2Q1
UALBMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 21Q1
BUFFG12 pl, 65 yds· own 20Q1
UALBPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 9Q2
BUFPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· opp 48Q2
UALBPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q2
BUFFG9 pl, 31 yds· own 48Q2
UALBTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2
BUFTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
UALBEND2 pl, -1 yds· own 38Q2
UALBMISS10 pl, 52 yds· own 30Q3
BUFFG11 pl, 52 yds· own 20Q3
UALBPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 31Q3
BUFPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 27Q3
UALBPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 19Q3
BUFPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 33Q4
UALBTD7 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
BUFFUM13 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4
UALBPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4
BUFINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4
UALBEND4 pl, 14 yds· own 41Q4
- Q4 9:37UALBBrad Harris 35 Yd pass from Neven Sussman (Neven Sussman Pass to Brad Harris for Two-Point Conversion)22–16
- Q3 6:12BUFAdam Mitcheson 45 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 0:24BUFMason Schreck 17 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:42UALBElijah Ibitokun-Hanks 33 Yd Run (Ethan Stark Kick)14–6
- Q2 2:32BUFAdam Mitcheson 37 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 10:53BUFAdam Mitcheson 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:57UALBAnthony Manzo-Lewis 5 Yd pass from Neven Sussman (Ethan Stark Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUAlbany were +23 — a 8% shot
#32 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #5 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →