Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsASU
- Q4 2:56OKSTBrennan Presley 16 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Alex Hale Kick)27–15
- Q4 7:11OKSTAlex Hale 22 Yd Field Goal 20–15
- Q3 9:09OKSTDe'Zhaun Stribling 3 Yd pass from Gunnar Gundy (Alex Hale Kick)17–15
- Q2 7:41OKSTAlex Hale 52 Yd Field Goal 10–15
- Q2 10:07ASUElijhah Badger 65 Yd pass from Jaden Rashada (Cameron Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–15
- Q2 11:58OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:28ASUCameron Skattebo 13 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAlan Bowman 11/16, 113 YDS
- RushOllie Gordon II 9 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDe'Zhaun Stribling 7 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaden Rashada 16/29, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Skattebo 14 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijhah Badger 3 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,935 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:11OKST +33%
Alex Hale 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:09OKST +26%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
- Q2 10:07ASU +23%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 65 yds for a TD (C. Skattebo Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 11:58OKST +20%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
- Q1 4:28ASU +19%
Cameron Skattebo run for 13 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
- Q4 6:03OKST +14%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the ASU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State?
Oklahoma State 27, Arizona State 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OKST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 277 |
| 191 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 22/32 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-62 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 31:17 | Possession | 28:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:46 OKST punt on 4th & 3 at OKST 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:56OKSTBrennan Presley 16 Yd pass from Garret Rangel (Alex Hale Kick)27–15
- Q4 7:11OKSTAlex Hale 22 Yd Field Goal 20–15
- Q3 9:09OKSTDe'Zhaun Stribling 3 Yd pass from Gunnar Gundy (Alex Hale Kick)17–15
- Q2 7:41OKSTAlex Hale 52 Yd Field Goal 10–15
- Q2 10:07ASUElijhah Badger 65 Yd pass from Jaden Rashada (Cameron Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–15
- Q2 11:58OKSTOllie Gordon II 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:28ASUCameron Skattebo 13 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1464, OKST Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU +0.2 (51% to win) — 2.3 points clear of ASU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OKST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (#47) | CORE overall | -12.7 (#103) |
| +3 / -1 | offense / defense | -8 / +4 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →