Arizona vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:38ARIZCam Denson 13 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)24–45
- Q4 3:30UCLADarren Andrews 26 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)17–45
- Q4 8:37UCLAKenneth Walker III 29 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)17–38
- Q4 11:04ARIZShun Brown 31 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)17–31
- Q4 14:15UCLAJosh Rosen 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:53ARIZJosh Pollack 20 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:12UCLAJJ Molson 39 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 12:38UCLATheo Howard 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:00UCLAKenneth Walker III 62 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:18UCLANate Starks 2 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07ARIZSamajie Grant 12 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassBrandon Dawkins 8/17, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKhalil Tate 15 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecShun Brown 4 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJosh Rosen 20/37, 350 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNate Starks 17 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenneth Walker 4 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:07ARIZ +18%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Samajie Grant for 12 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
- Q1 9:18UCLA +17%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q1 0:00UCLA +17%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 62 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q3 12:38UCLA +10%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. UCLA?
Arizona 24, UCLA 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCLA) was correct.
| ARIZ | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 475 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 350 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/31 | Comp/Att | 20/37 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 31:32 | Possession | 28:28 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:42 UCLA punt on 4th & 1 at UCLA 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:38ARIZCam Denson 13 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)24–45
- Q4 3:30UCLADarren Andrews 26 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)17–45
- Q4 8:37UCLAKenneth Walker III 29 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)17–38
- Q4 11:04ARIZShun Brown 31 Yd pass from Khalil Tate (Josh Pollack Kick)17–31
- Q4 14:15UCLAJosh Rosen 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:53ARIZJosh Pollack 20 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:12UCLAJJ Molson 39 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 12:38UCLATheo Howard 19 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:00UCLAKenneth Walker III 62 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (JJ Molson Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:18UCLANate Starks 2 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:07ARIZSamajie Grant 12 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1652, ARIZ Elo 1514 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -7.9 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #101 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →UCLA leads 27–18–2 · Arizona has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7 (#72) | CORE overall | +7.6 (#37) |
| +3 / +5 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 1.97 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 3.28 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →