Ohio vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsBUF
- Q4 1:58BUFJordan Johnson 39 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)17–41
- Q4 13:06BUFAdam Mitcheson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 3:58OHIOMaleek Irons 1 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:00BUFAdam Mitcheson 24 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 3:05BUFOkezie Alozie 22 Yd Interception Return (Adam Mitcheson Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:22BUFJoe Licata 1 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)10–21
- Q2 12:44OHIOJosiah Yazdani 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 2:20BUFJordan Johnson 4 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:31BUFRyan Williamson 15 Yd Interception Return (Adam Mitcheson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:46OHIODaz'mond Patterson 6 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDerrius Vick 32/51, 323 YDS, 3 INT
- RushDaz'mond Patterson 11 CAR, 28 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeith Heitzman 6 REC, 83 YDS
- PassJoe Licata 21/32, 212 YDS
- RushJordan Johnson 28 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarcus McGill 8 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:20BUF +19%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q1 9:46OHIO +18%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
- Q2 7:22BUF +18%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q1 8:31BUF +17%
Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Ryan Williamson return for 15 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q2 3:05BUF +9%
Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Okezie Alozie return for 22 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
- Q2 12:44OHIO +8%
Josiah Yazdani 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Buffalo?
Ohio 17, Buffalo 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
| OHIO | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 424 | Total yards | 373 |
| 370 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 33/54 | Comp/Att | 21/32 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 29:01 | Possession | 30:59 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:06 OHIO punt on 4th & 21 at BUF 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58BUFJordan Johnson 39 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)17–41
- Q4 13:06BUFAdam Mitcheson 35 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 3:58OHIOMaleek Irons 1 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:00BUFAdam Mitcheson 24 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 3:05BUFOkezie Alozie 22 Yd Interception Return (Adam Mitcheson Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:22BUFJoe Licata 1 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)10–21
- Q2 12:44OHIOJosiah Yazdani 24 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 2:20BUFJordan Johnson 4 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:31BUFRyan Williamson 15 Yd Interception Return (Adam Mitcheson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:46OHIODaz'mond Patterson 6 Yd Run (Josiah Yazdani Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1300, OHIO Elo 1330 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -1.2 (54% to win) — 3.7 points clear of BUF's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #86 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Ohio leads 19–10 · Ohio has won 4 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.7 (#82) | CORE overall | -5.7 (#86) |
| -7 / -2 | offense / defense | -4 / +1 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →