Ball State vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 7:32BALLJahwan Edwards 13 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)41–24
- Q3 0:58BALLJahwan Edwards 1 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)34–24
- Q3 6:33BGSUTyler Tate 38 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 10:42BALLScott Secor 33 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q2 0:41BALLJordan Williams 16 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)24–21
- Q2 4:31BALLChris Shillings 25 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)17–21
- Q2 11:29BALLScott Secor 35 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q1 9:40BGSUFred Coppet 2 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)7–21
- Q1 12:49BGSUClint Stephens 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Tyler Tate Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:02BALLKeVonn Mabon 62 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49BGSUTravis Greene 75 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassOzzie Mann 20/29, 286 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJahwan Edwards 28 CAR, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeVonn Mabon 6 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJames Knapke 18/27, 140 YDS
- RushTravis Calton Greene 14 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRoger Lewis 4 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:58BALL +27%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
- Q2 0:41BALL +24%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 16 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
- Q2 4:31BALL +16%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 25 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
- Q1 13:02BALL +15%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 62 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
- Q1 12:49BGSU +15%
Scott Secor kickoff for 61 yds, Clint Stephens return for 96 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
- Q3 10:42BALL +13%
Scott Secor 33 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Bowling Green?
Ball State 41, Bowling Green 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BALL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 485 | Total yards | 454 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 140 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 314 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 8.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 6-36 |
| 36:47 | Possession | 23:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:43 BALL punt on 4th & 1 at BALL 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:32BALLJahwan Edwards 13 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)41–24
- Q3 0:58BALLJahwan Edwards 1 Yd Run (Scott Secor Kick)34–24
- Q3 6:33BGSUTyler Tate 38 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 10:42BALLScott Secor 33 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q2 0:41BALLJordan Williams 16 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)24–21
- Q2 4:31BALLChris Shillings 25 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)17–21
- Q2 11:29BALLScott Secor 35 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q1 9:40BGSUFred Coppet 2 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)7–21
- Q1 12:49BGSUClint Stephens 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Tyler Tate Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:02BALLKeVonn Mabon 62 Yd pass from Ozzie Mann (Scott Secor Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49BGSUTravis Greene 75 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1433, BALL Elo 1367 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -5 (64% to win) — 4.5 points clear of BALL's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #55 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 21–9–1 · Bowling Green has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| BALL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.00 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 36% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →