Watchlist
Week 1 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.
Did it work?
Across the 91 games from this week that have finished, the pregame score correlates r = 0.38 with CFBD’s post-game excitement index. The five games this ranked highest averaged 5.2 excitement against 4.1 for the week.
Shown whether or not it flatters the score. A ranking with no stated criteria cannot be wrong, which is the reason not to build one.
The five
- 1Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETBridgeforth Stadiummodel James Madison by 4.4market -6excitement 3.9
- Projected closeness 23/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Points on the board 4/10
52score - 2Mon, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ETDoak Campbell Stadiummodel SMU by 5.2market +3excitement 6.4
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 2/10
52score - 3Washington Stateat#17WashingtonApple CupSun, Sep 6 · 4:00 PM ETHusky Stadiummodel Washington by 12.9market -23.5excitement 4.4
- Projected closeness 10/35
- Team quality 23/30
- Stakes 6/15
- History 9/10
- Points on the board 4/10
51score - 4Sat, Sep 5 · 10:30 PM ETCalifornia Memorial Stadiummodel UCLA by 0.1market +2.5excitement 7.1
- Projected closeness 35/35
- Team quality 9/30
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
51score - 5Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ETClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complexmodel Hawai'i by 5.3market +3excitement 4.1
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 7/10
49score
The rest of the slate
- 6Fri, Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ETSpartan Stadiummodel Michigan State by 1.9market -10excitement 4.9
- Projected closeness 29/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 7Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ETNissan Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 18.0market -6.5excitement 8.8
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 13/15
- Points on the board 2/10
46score - 8Thu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM ETBobby Dodd Stadiummodel Georgia Tech by 2.1market -6.5excitement 6.2
- Projected closeness 28/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Points on the board 4/10
46score - 9Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETMercedes-Benz Stadiummodel Auburn by 3.9market -6.5excitement 7.4
- Projected closeness 24/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Points on the board 4/10
45score - 10Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ETTiger Stadium (LA)model LSU by 9.6market -10excitement 3.3
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 3/10
43score - 11Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETBeaver Stadiummodel Penn State by 8.2market -23.5excitement 2.8
- Projected closeness 16/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 12Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ETMichigan Stadiummodel Michigan by 12.1market -27.5excitement 6.0
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 13Sat, Sep 5 · 3:45 PM ETChapman Stadiummodel Tulsa by 1.7market +13.5excitement 4.5
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 3/30
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 14Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETWallace Wade Stadiummodel Duke by 9.1market -9excitement 4.4
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Points on the board 4/10
37score - 15Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ETLambeau Fieldmodel Notre Dame by 20.1market -21excitement 4.7
- Projected closeness 5/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 2/10
36score - 16Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETAutzen Stadiummodel Oregon by 23.1market -24.5excitement 7.8
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 23/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 2/10
36score - 17Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)model Indiana by 29.2market -40excitement 3.2
- Projected closeness 2/35
- Team quality 24/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 3/10
36score - 18Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETBryant-Denny Stadiummodel Alabama by 18.4market -28excitement 3.4
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 4/10
35score - 19WyomingatColorado StateBorder War (Mountain West)Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ETCanvas Stadiummodel Colorado State by 9.1market -2.5excitement 4.4
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 5/30
- History 10/10
- Points on the board 3/10
32score - 20Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial Stadiummodel Texas by 22.6market -29.5excitement 3.4
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 3/10
32score - 21Fri, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ETStanford Stadiummodel Miami by 23.8market +24.5excitement 3.9
- Projected closeness 3/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 8/15
- Points on the board 4/10
31score - 22Sat, Sep 5 · 10:30 PM ETMackay Stadiummodel Western Kentucky by 6.4market +0.5excitement 3.7
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 8/30
- Points on the board 4/10
31score - 23Thu, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)model Illinois by 12.0market -26excitement 4.8
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Points on the board 4/10
29score - 24Fri, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ETLos Angeles Memorial Coliseummodel USC by 24.3market -22excitement 3.8
- Projected closeness 3/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 1/10
29score - 25Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETNippert Stadiummodel Cincinnati by 10.9market -7excitement 4.7
- Projected closeness 12/35
- Team quality 12/30
- Points on the board 4/10
28score - 26Sat, Sep 5 · 3:00 PM ETSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 47.1market -49.5excitement 2.9
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 6/10
25score - 27Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ETJones AT&T Stadiummodel Texas Tech by 53.5market -45excitement 3.3
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 7/10
24score - 28Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ETRaymond James Stadiummodel South Florida by 17.5market -14.5excitement 5.5
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Points on the board 4/10
24score - 29Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ETKyle Fieldmodel Texas A&M by 29.8market -39excitement 2.9
- Projected closeness 2/35
- Team quality 12/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 3/10
24score - 30Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ETSimmons Bank Liberty Stadiummodel Memphis by 17.2market -10.5excitement 6.0
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 11/30
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
24score - 31Thu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM ETMemorial Stadiummodel Missouri by 61.2market -55.5excitement 3.4
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 5/15
- Points on the board 8/10
23score - 32Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry Stadiummodel Bowling Green by 13.4market -1.5excitement 4.3
- Projected closeness 9/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Points on the board 4/10
23score - 33Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ETLaVell Edwards Stadiummodel BYU by 44.6market -50excitement 2.6
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 6/10
23score - 34Sat, Sep 5 · 4:15 PM ETKinnick Stadiummodel Iowa by 29.5market -31.5excitement 3.0
- Projected closeness 2/35
- Team quality 12/30
- Stakes 6/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 3/10
23score - 35Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ETNeyland Stadiummodel Tennessee by 38.1market -49.5excitement 3.5
- Projected closeness 1/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 6/10
23score - 36Thu, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ETRice-Eccles Stadiummodel Utah by 33.6market -38excitement 3.0
- Projected closeness 1/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 6/15
- Points on the board 5/10
23score - 37Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)model Nebraska by 15.1market -23.5excitement 5.9
- Projected closeness 8/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Points on the board 4/10
23score - 38Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM ETOhio Stadiummodel Ohio State by 40.5market -50.5excitement 3.0
- Projected closeness 1/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 4/10
22score - 39Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM ETAcrisure Stadiummodel Pittsburgh by 14.6market -16.5excitement 3.3
- Projected closeness 8/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Points on the board 4/10
22score - 40Fri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ETCenter Parc Stadiummodel Georgia State by 16.4market -28.5excitement 3.2
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Points on the board 4/10
21score
How the score is built
- Projected closeness — 35 points
- Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
- Team quality — 30 points
- Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
- Stakes — 15 points
- Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
- Rivalry history — 10 points
- From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
- Points on the board — 10 points
- The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.
There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.