Abilene Christian vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ABILTeam statsTTU
- Q4 2:29ABILAlex Broome 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Perez Kick)10–33
- Q4 2:45TTUMalcolm Simmons 64 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)3–33
- Q3 1:52TTUStone Harrington 45 Yd Field Goal 3–26
- Q3 7:36TTUStone Harrington 33 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q3 13:03TTUStone Harrington 28 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:07ABILBrandon Perez 41 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 1:38TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:22TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:14TTUQuinten Joyner 14 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
A comfortable Texas Tech win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
There was no drama to speak of. Texas Tech dismantles Abilene Christian, 33-10 at Jones AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech led from start to finish and never let Abilene Christian within striking distance.
- PassJohn David Black 18/32, 119 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAlex Broome 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecCristian Driver 8 REC, 93 YDS
- PassWill Hammond 26/33, 298 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJ'Koby Williams 13 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Johnson 4 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Abilene Christian vs. Texas Tech?
Abilene Christian 10, Texas Tech 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| ABIL | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 194 | Total yards | 471 |
| 119 | Passing yards | 298 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 15 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 3.7 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-17 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 27:48 | Possession | 32:12 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:03 ABIL go for it on 4th & 9 at TTU 14. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29ABILAlex Broome 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Perez Kick)10–33
- Q4 2:45TTUMalcolm Simmons 64 Yd pass from Will Hammond (Stone Harrington Kick)3–33
- Q3 1:52TTUStone Harrington 45 Yd Field Goal 3–26
- Q3 7:36TTUStone Harrington 33 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q3 13:03TTUStone Harrington 28 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:07ABILBrandon Perez 41 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 1:38TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:22TTUJ'Koby Williams 5 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:14TTUQuinten Joyner 14 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -53.5 (100% to win) — 8.5 points clear of TTU's market line of -45. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Texas Tech dismantles Abilene Christian, 33-10
A comfortable Texas Tech win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
One team finished its drives
Texas Tech scored on 67% of its drives to Abilene Christian's 10%, chiefly Will Hammond (6 pts), J'Koby Williams (6 pts) and Malcolm Simmons (6 pts). Texas Tech sacked Abilene Christian's quarterback 3 times: Jamond Mathis (2.5 sacks) and A.J. Holmes Jr. (0.5 sacks). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Will Hammond threw for 298 yards on 33 attempts with one touchdown and ran two times for 11 yards, including two third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. J'Koby Williams ran 13 times for 71 yards and one score and caught eight passes for 57 yards. Malcolm Simmons caught one pass for 64 yards for a touchdown. For Abilene Christian, Cristian Driver caught eight passes for 93 yards. John David Black threw for 119 yards on 32 attempts, with three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Rovaughn Banks Jr. ran 12 times for 25 yards. Jamond Mathis was the disruptive one for Texas Tech: 2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles.
What Abilene Christian has to fix
The problems had names: John David Black (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Texas Tech: Jamond Mathis (2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles) and John Curry (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2.5 tackles). 1 of Texas Tech's 4 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2017.
How we got here
Texas Tech struck first through Quinten Joyner, led 17-3 at the half and Abilene Christian got the final points on a late touchdown by Alex Broome.
How it graded
The closing line had Texas Tech -45.5. Abilene Christian covered. The total was 60.5; the teams combined for 43, an under. Brandon Perez accounted for 3 of Abilene Christian's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Texas Tech cleared the bar with room to spare; Abilene Christian goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →