Northern Illinois vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsIOWA
- Q3 2:20IOWAEvan James 77 Yd Punt Return (Caden Buhr Kick)0–40
- Q2 0:02IOWACaden Buhr 34 Yd Field Goal 0–33
- Q2 3:34IOWACaden Buhr 45 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 7:40IOWAXavier Williams 8 Yd pass from Jeremy Hecklinski (Caden Buhr Kick)0–27
- Q1 4:10IOWAKamari Moulton 37 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)0–20
- Q1 6:46IOWAKamari Moulton 50 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)0–13
- Q1 9:52IOWATony Diaz 6 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Caden Buhr PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
A comfortable Iowa win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
Northern Illinois went three-and-out on 73% of its drives. That is the game. Iowa dismantles Northern Illinois, 40-0 at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa led from start to finish and never let Northern Illinois within striking distance. Kamari Moulton ran 11 times for 183 yards and two scores.
- PassTaron Dickens 9/14, 96 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTelly Johnson Jr. 8 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecKelan McInerney 3 REC, 55 YDS
- PassHank Brown 12/20, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKamari Moulton 11 CAR, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTony Diaz 7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 40 entering the 4th quarter. Across 267 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Iowa?
Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| NIU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 120 | Total yards | 507 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 7 | Rushing yards | 289 |
| 7 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 21/40 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 0.2 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-61 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 26:09 | Possession | 33:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:26 IOWA punt on 4th & 8 at NIU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:20IOWAEvan James 77 Yd Punt Return (Caden Buhr Kick)0–40
- Q2 0:02IOWACaden Buhr 34 Yd Field Goal 0–33
- Q2 3:34IOWACaden Buhr 45 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q2 7:40IOWAXavier Williams 8 Yd pass from Jeremy Hecklinski (Caden Buhr Kick)0–27
- Q1 4:10IOWAKamari Moulton 37 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)0–20
- Q1 6:46IOWAKamari Moulton 50 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)0–13
- Q1 9:52IOWATony Diaz 6 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Caden Buhr PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1791, NIU Elo 1322 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -29.5 (98% to win) — 2.0 points clear of NIU's market line of -31.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIowa leads 9–1 · 20% have been one-possession games
| NIU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.1 (#136) | CORE overall | +20.7 (#10) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / -14 |
| -0.50 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | -0.50 |
| 71% | three-and-outs | 23% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Kamari Moulton ran for 183 yards and Iowa did not need much else
A comfortable Iowa win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
The big plays only went one way
Iowa produced 13 plays of 15+ yards to Northern Illinois's 5: Kamari Moulton (involved in 4), Hank Brown (involved in 4) and Jeremy Hecklinski (involved in 3). Iowa scored on 46% of its drives to Northern Illinois's 7%, led by Kamari Moulton (12 pts), Hank Brown (6 pts) and Jeremy Hecklinski (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Kamari Moulton ran 11 times for 183 yards and two scores — a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Hank Brown threw for 129 yards on 20 attempts with one touchdown and ran two times for 12 yards — that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Jeremy Hecklinski threw for 76 yards on 16 attempts with one touchdown and ran one times for 16 yards — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Northern Illinois, Kelan McInerney caught three passes for 55 yards, with two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. La'Don Bryant caught four passes for 42 yards. Jalen Macon threw for 17 yards on 10 attempts. Deshaun Lee was the disruptive one for Iowa: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 tackle.
What Northern Illinois has to fix
The problems had names: Taron Dickens (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Iowa: Deshaun Lee (1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 tackle) and Joseph Anderson (1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 1.5 tackles). 6 of Iowa's 9 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2016.
How we got here
Iowa struck first through Hank Brown, led 33-0 at the half and Iowa got the final points on a late touchdown by Evan James.
How it graded
The closing line had Iowa -31.5. Iowa covered. The total was 44.5; the teams combined for 40, an under. Kamari Moulton accounted for 12 of Iowa's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Iowa cleared the bar with room to spare; Northern Illinois goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →