Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 7:52TLSADamari Alston 29 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:52OKSTJustin Bowick 16 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)10–17
- Q3 7:00TLSAOran Singleton Jr. 21 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:21TLSADamari Alston 1 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)3–10
- Q2 2:04OKSTSam Keltner 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 2:18TLSAMarlon Hauck 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TLSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OKST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.9
Past the box score: where Tulsa won this one.
Damari Alston scored 12 of Tulsa's points. Tulsa beats Oklahoma State, 24-10 at Chapman Stadium. Tulsa was the steadier side of a 14-point win. Damari Alston ran 15 times for 73 yards and two scores.
- PassDrew Mestemaker 29/49, 241 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCaleb Hawkins 18 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecWyatt Young 8 REC, 84 YDS
- PassBaylor Hayes 17/24, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDamari Alston 15 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
- RecOran Singleton Jr. 4 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:21TLSA +22%
Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush left for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:52OKST +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #0 J.Bowick caught at TLS01, for 16 yards to the TLS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 2:04OKST +14%
#16 S.Keltner field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
- Q3 7:00TLSA +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton caught at OSU25, for 21 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 10:38TLSA +10%
Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #87 J.Shockley caught at TLS50, for 19 yards to the OSU36 (#7 Q.Hammonds; #6 C.Bodnar) PENALTY TLS Holding (#84 J.Robe…
- Q1 2:18TLSA +9%
#18 M.Hauck field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa?
Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TLSA) was correct.
| OKST | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Total yards | 361 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 227 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 27 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/49 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-59 | Penalties | 9-102 |
| 31:05 | Possession | 28:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:47 TLSA punt on 4th & 1 at TLSA 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:52TLSADamari Alston 29 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:52OKSTJustin Bowick 16 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)10–17
- Q3 7:00TLSAOran Singleton Jr. 21 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:21TLSADamari Alston 1 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)3–10
- Q2 2:04OKSTSam Keltner 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 2:18TLSAMarlon Hauck 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1240, OKST Elo 1240 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -1.7 (54% to win) — 15.2 points clear of TLSA's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #4 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 44–28–5 · 38% have been one-possession games
| OKST | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#128) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#69) |
| -12 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / -4 |
| 0.91 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 0.91 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Tulsa beats Oklahoma State, 24-10
Past the box score: where Tulsa won this one.
The turnover battle was the game
Tulsa won the turnover battle 1-4: Tyson Williams (1 INT, 1 PBU, 4 tackles), Zach Williams (1 INT, 0.5 tackles) and Devin Robinson (1 forced fumble, 3 tackles). Tulsa started 15 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. That's what carried Tulsa.
The standouts
Baylor Hayes threw for 227 yards on 24 attempts with one touchdown and ran six times for 28 yards, including a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Oran Singleton Jr. lost 9 yards on one carries and caught four passes for 99 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Damari Alston ran 15 times for 73 yards and two scores, with that score from inside the 20. For Oklahoma State, Wyatt Young caught eight passes for 84 yards. Drew Mestemaker threw for 241 yards on 49 attempts with one touchdown, with that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Caleb Hawkins ran 18 times for 79 yards and caught six passes for 29 yards. Tyson Williams was the disruptive one for Tulsa: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 4 tackles.
The plays that turned it
It came down to a few snaps. Caleb Hawkins's 0-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q1 07:48. Then Baylor Hayes's 56-yard throw to Oran Singleton Jr. on 1st-and-10 at Q1 07:37. Later, Drew Mestemaker's dropback that came up short on 1st-and-10 at Q4 04:13.
How it unfolded
Tulsa struck first through Marlon Hauck, led 10-3 at the half and Tulsa got the final points on a late touchdown by Damari Alston.
Who got home
Two names to keep, all for Tulsa: Tyson Williams (1 INT, 1 PBU, 4 tackles) and Zach Williams (1 INT, 0.5 tackles).
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Tulsa was the better team and looked it; Oklahoma State has fixable problems. Justin Bowick was responsible for 6 of Oklahoma State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →