North Carolina A&T vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NORTTeam statsGAST
- Q4 9:04NORTAsher Holland 39 Yd Field Goal 10–59
- Q3 1:42GASTXavier Butler 20 Yd Run (Balint Vorosmarty Kick)7–59
- Q3 6:20GASTSavion Hart 41 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–52
- Q3 8:52GASTSamer Layous 26 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 11:38GASTAyden Pereira 17 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:19GASTJamari Miller 8 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Samer Layous Kick)7–35
- Q2 2:38GASTDennis Murray Jr. 14 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:12NORTAnthony Rucker 61 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:00GASTQwantavius Wiggins 2 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:00GASTLanear McCrary Jr. 8 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:17GASTDennis Murray Jr. 30 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Samer Layous Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 4.9
Georgia State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
There was no drama to speak of. Georgia State runs away from North Carolina A&T, 59-10 at Center Parc Stadium. Georgia State led from start to finish and never let North Carolina A&T within striking distance. Cameran Brown threw for 190 yards on 20 attempts with two touchdowns and ran three times for 15 yards.
- PassKevin White 9/20, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJ.T. Smith 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecAnthony Rucker 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCameran Brown 15/20, 190 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLanear McCrary Jr. 9 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDennis Murray Jr. 2 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:17GAST +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete deep right to #0 D.Murray Jr. caught at NCA06, for 30 yards to the NCA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:00GAST +5%
Lanear McCrary Jr. 8 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina A&T vs. Georgia State?
North Carolina A&T 10, Georgia State 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| NORT | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 209 | Total yards | 563 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 284 |
| 10 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/23 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-90 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 27:14 | Possession | 32:46 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:53 NORT punt on 4th & 2 at NORT 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:04NORTAsher Holland 39 Yd Field Goal 10–59
- Q3 1:42GASTXavier Butler 20 Yd Run (Balint Vorosmarty Kick)7–59
- Q3 6:20GASTSavion Hart 41 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–52
- Q3 8:52GASTSamer Layous 26 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q3 11:38GASTAyden Pereira 17 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:19GASTJamari Miller 8 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Samer Layous Kick)7–35
- Q2 2:38GASTDennis Murray Jr. 14 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:12NORTAnthony Rucker 61 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:00GASTQwantavius Wiggins 2 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:00GASTLanear McCrary Jr. 8 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:17GASTDennis Murray Jr. 30 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Samer Layous Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -16.3 (83% to win) — 12.1 points clear of NORT's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Georgia State runs away from North Carolina A&T, 59-10
Georgia State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Georgia State scored on 75% of its drives to North Carolina A&T's 17%: Cameran Brown (12 pts), DJ Murray Jr. (12 pts) and Ayden Pereira (6 pts). Georgia State produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to North Carolina A&T's 5, led by Cameran Brown (involved in 5), DJ Murray Jr. (involved in 2) and Ayden Pereira (involved in 2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Cameran Brown threw for 190 yards on 20 attempts with two touchdowns and ran three times for 15 yards — that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. DJ Murray Jr. ran seven times for 34 yards and one score and caught two passes for 50 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. Ayden Pereira threw for 50 yards on seven attempts and ran two times for 28 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20. For North Carolina A&T, Anthony Rucker caught four passes for 80 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Kevin White threw for 122 yards on 20 attempts with one touchdown and ran 13 times for 27 yards — four third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Shimique Blizzard ran five times for 15 yards. Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson was the disruptive one for Georgia State: 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2.5 tackles.
What North Carolina A&T has to fix
North Carolina A&T was not without production. Anthony Rucker caught four passes for 80 yards, one of them for a touchdown, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
The defensive story
Three names to keep: Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson (2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2.5 tackles) for Georgia State, Xavier Esqillion (1 sack, 2.5 TFLs, 3 tackles) for Georgia State and Aaron Moore (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle) for Georgia State. 4 of Georgia State's 6 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2017.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Georgia State did exactly what a better team should against North Carolina A&T: leave no doubt. Anthony Rucker was responsible for 6 of North Carolina A&T's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →