Missouri State vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MOSTTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 4:04TA&MAsher Murray 47 Yd Field Goal 0–50
- Q4 12:52TA&MAaron Gregory 15 Yd pass from Brady Hart (David Olano Kick)0–47
- Q4 13:35TA&MCarsyn Baker 12 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–40
- Q3 2:09TA&MJamarion Morrow 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–33
- Q3 9:56TA&MTerry Bussey 10 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–26
- Q2 0:29TA&MMario Craver 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)0–19
- Q2 3:22TA&MDavid Olano 28 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q1 0:26TA&MTeam Safety0–9
- Q1 9:32TA&MIsaiah Horton 15 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Texas A&M was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
There was no drama to speak of. Texas A&M routs Missouri State, 50-0 at Kyle Field. Texas A&M led from start to finish and never let Missouri State within striking distance. Marcel Reed threw for 233 yards on 30 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 20 yards.
- PassSkyler Locklear 8/17, 30 YDS
- RushBreezy Dubar 7 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecDillon Hipp 2 REC, 15 YDS
- PassMarcel Reed 21/30, 233 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRueben Owens II 17 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecIsaiah Horton 4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Texas A&M?
Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| MOST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Total yards | 505 |
| 30 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 37 | Rushing yards | 236 |
| 4 | First downs | 35 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 8/17 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 1.8 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-41 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 16:57 | Possession | 43:03 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:04TA&MAsher Murray 47 Yd Field Goal 0–50
- Q4 12:52TA&MAaron Gregory 15 Yd pass from Brady Hart (David Olano Kick)0–47
- Q4 13:35TA&MCarsyn Baker 12 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–40
- Q3 2:09TA&MJamarion Morrow 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–33
- Q3 9:56TA&MTerry Bussey 10 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)0–26
- Q2 0:29TA&MMario Craver 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)0–19
- Q2 3:22TA&MDavid Olano 28 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q1 0:26TA&MTeam Safety0–9
- Q1 9:32TA&MIsaiah Horton 15 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1748, MOST Elo 1385 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -29.8 (98% to win) — 9.2 points clear of MOST's market line of -39. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.5 (#126) | CORE overall | +27.9 (#3) |
| -10 / +5 | offense / defense | +11 / -17 |
| 0.00 | points / drive | 4.36 |
| 4.36 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 80% | three-and-outs | 9% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Marcel Reed produced five of Texas A&M's eight explosive plays
Texas A&M was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Texas A&M scored on 75% of its drives to Missouri State's 0%: Marcel Reed (12 pts), Carsyn Baker (6 pts) and Isaiah Horton (6 pts). Texas A&M produced 8 plays of 15+ yards to Missouri State's 0, led by Marcel Reed (involved in 5), Isaiah Horton (involved in 3) and Rueben Owens (involved in 2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Marcel Reed threw for 233 yards on 30 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 20 yards, with that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Carsyn Baker ran seven times for 52 yards and one score. Isaiah Horton caught four passes for 76 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Missouri State, Skyler Locklear threw for 30 yards on 17 attempts. Jmariyae Robinson caught four passes for 14 yards. Dillon Hipp caught two passes for 15 yards. Ryan Henderson was the disruptive one for Texas A&M: 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 2 tackles.
What Missouri State has to fix
The problems had names: Skyler Locklear (1 lost fumble) and Jambres Dubar (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Ryan Henderson (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 2 tackles) for Texas A&M and Joel Boamah (1 forced fumble, 3 PBUs, 4 tackles) for Missouri State.
How it unfolded
Texas A&M struck first through Marcel Reed, led 19-0 at the half and Texas A&M got the final points on a late field goal.
How it graded
The closing line had Texas A&M -38.5. Texas A&M covered. The total was 53.5; the teams combined for 50, an under. Marcel Reed accounted for 12 of Texas A&M's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Texas A&M cleared the bar with room to spare; Missouri State goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →