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Baylor vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap

Final score, recap & advanced stats

BAY
Baylor
AUB
Auburn
Final
Mercedes-Benz StadiumNeutral site
1234T
BAY070916
AUB370717

BAYTeam statsAUB

436Total yards389
333Pass259
103Rush130
27First downs24
7-223rd down10-18
2Turnovers3
32:32Possession27:28
  • Q4 0:09BAYGavin Freeman 5 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)1617
  • Q4 3:21AUBByrum Brown 11 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)1017
  • Q4 7:12BAYRhett Armstrong 22 Yd Field Goal 1010
  • Q2 1:30BAYLouis Brown IV 14 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Rhett Armstrong Kick)710
  • Q2 3:51AUBJeremiah Cobb 15 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)010
  • Q1 8:13AUBAlex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal 03

How the model called it

Model line
AUB −3.9
market AUB −6.5
Biggest swing
BAY +77%
Q4 0:09
Against the number
BAY covered
line AUB −6.5
Recap6d ago
D.J. Lagway's 333 yards died on third down

Lagway threw it 54 times for 333 yards in his Baylor debut and converted five of 18 third downs; Byrum Brown threw three interceptions and won anyway.

Fourth and goal at the Auburn 5 with nine seconds left, and D.J. Lagway found Gavin Freeman at the goal line for the touchdown that pulled Baylor within a point. Dave Aranda kept his offense on the field. Lagway rolled right and threw a quick out to tight end Matthew Klopfenstein, and Eric Winters stopped him inches short. "We were prepared for it. Once I saw him go, I went too," Winters told AuburnTigers.com. "As soon as he caught it, I wrapped him up."

Replay reviewed the previous play for a runner down by contact and upheld it. The clock is reported two ways, nine seconds by the Associated Press and 11 by AuburnTigers.com. It was Winters' second goal-line stop inside a minute: at 0:59 he met Dawson Pendergrass, 25 carries for 88 yards and no touchdown, at the Auburn 3 and held him to a yard. He was SEC co-defensive player of the week, per Auburn Wire.

100%50%0%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
AUB favored ↑50%BAY favored ↓
GridpexAUB 100%
Closing line
AUB −6.5
Closing total
58.5
Model line
AUB −3.9
Actual result
BAY 16 – 17 AUB
DraftKings, liveAUB −6.5total 58.5
Baylor
Auburn
18.6sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
178
Points / snap
0.19

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AUB up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%
AUB went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
  • Q4 0:09BAY +77%

    No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #6 G.Freeman caught at AUB01, for 5 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN #2 D.Lagway pass attempt failed #2 D.Lagway…

  • Q4 3:21AUB +32%

    No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown rush left for 11 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

  • Q4 7:12BAY +20%

    #98 R.Armstrong field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD

  • Q4 6:48AUB +20%

    No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AUB41 (#5 T.Barnes)

  • Q2 1:30BAY +19%

    No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete short left to #4 L.Brown IV caught at AUB01, for 14 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

  • Q2 3:51AUB +17%

    No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Cobb rush right for 15 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

Full recap · 5 minD.J. Lagway's 333 yards died on third downRead →

FAQ

What was the final score of Baylor vs. Auburn?

Baylor 16, Auburn 17.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Model estimates for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Data: CollegeFootballData.