Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


ARKATeam statsMIZ
- Q4 3:49MIZPreston Hatfield 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)14–54
- Q4 6:13ARKADavid Brewer IV 16 Yd pass from Jack Schierholz (Trey Glymph Kick)14–47
- Q4 10:00MIZMatt Zollers 5 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)7–47
- Q3 2:31ARKAZa'Marion Webber 27 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)7–40
- Q2 0:00MIZBlake Craig 32 Yd Field Goal 0–40
- Q2 4:01MIZCayden Lee 47 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–37
- Q2 5:44MIZDonovan Olugbode 35 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–30
- Q2 5:52MIZTeam Safety 0–23
- Q2 12:56MIZJamal Roberts 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:16MIZDonovan Olugbode 14 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:38MIZShaun Terry II 25 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–7
How the model called it
The Ole Miss transfer was named Missouri's starter in March and pulled before halftime; the 40-point final still fell short of a 53.5-point opening number.
Austin Simmons threw four touchdown passes in six possessions and then watched from the sideline. The first went 25 yards to Shaun Terry II on third-and-10 at 9:38 of the first quarter; the second 14 yards to Donovan Olugbode on third-and-4 at 4:16. Missouri led 40-0 at halftime. Calum McAndrew's Aug. 31 Columbia Daily Tribune preview had the Tigers opening as a 53.5-point favorite and predicted 56-7. The margin was 40.
- PassJack Schierholz 4/10, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RushZa'Marion Webber 7 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavid Brewer IV 2 REC, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Simmons 17/19, 252 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJamal Roberts 13 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Olugbode 7 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Missouri?
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14, Missouri 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| ARKA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Total yards | 562 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 357 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 13 | First downs | 33 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 11/24 | Comp/Att | 26/33 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-71 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 26:02 | Possession | 33:58 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:37 ARKA punt on 4th & 2 at ARKA 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:49MIZPreston Hatfield 9 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)14–54
- Q4 6:13ARKADavid Brewer IV 16 Yd pass from Jack Schierholz (Trey Glymph Kick)14–47
- Q4 10:00MIZMatt Zollers 5 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)7–47
- Q3 2:31ARKAZa'Marion Webber 27 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)7–40
- Q2 0:00MIZBlake Craig 32 Yd Field Goal 0–40
- Q2 4:01MIZCayden Lee 47 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–37
- Q2 5:44MIZDonovan Olugbode 35 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–30
- Q2 5:52MIZTeam Safety 0–23
- Q2 12:56MIZJamal Roberts 1 Yd Run (Blake Craig Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:16MIZDonovan Olugbode 14 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:38MIZShaun Terry II 25 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -61.2 (100% to win) — 5.7 points clear of MIZ's market line of -55.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Austin Simmons threw four touchdowns in six possessions
The Ole Miss transfer was named Missouri's starter in March and pulled before halftime; the 40-point final still fell short of a 53.5-point opening number.
Missouri settled its quarterback job in March, six months early
Simmons is an Ole Miss graduate transfer who committed to Missouri on Jan. 6, 2026, USA TODAY reported. He opened last season as Ole Miss' starter, hurt an ankle in Week 2 at Kentucky and never got the job back from Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 4,180 yards. His 2025 was two starts, 33 of 55, 576 yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions. In Columbia he went 17 of 19 for 252.
The Columbia Missourian reported on March 19 that Missouri named him the starter straight out of spring, over Matt Zollers, transfer Nick Evers and freshman Gavin Sidwar, and no fall competition followed. Drinkwitz told the Tribune in April that last season's error was "not naming a starting quarterback soon enough." In 2025 Beau Pribula and Sam Horn ran into the opener, where Horn was hurt on his only snap.
Simmons converted all five of his third downs, two for touchdowns
Both first-quarter scores came on third down, and Olugbode caught three third-down throws in all. Missouri moved the chains on 6 of 10 third downs across 12 drives, scored on 66.7 percent of them and went three-and-out on 25.0. Arkansas-Pine Bluff converted 2 of 14 across 11 drives and stalled inside three plays on 45.5 percent. "I felt like Austin really handled himself well, especially in third downs," Drinkwitz said, per Missouri Tigers On SI.
The expected-points column below ranks plays inside this game and nothing else. Simmons' +9.6 carries no comparison group, so it maps where Missouri's points came from rather than ranking him against other quarterbacks. It also comes off a play-by-play narrower than the official box: the recovered target log has Simmons 7 for 7 to Olugbode for 81 yards and 3 for 3 to Cayden Lee for 33, carrying neither Olugbode's 35-yard score at 5:44 nor Lee's 47-yarder at 4:01.
Olugbode's official line was eight catches for 116 yards and two touchdowns; Lee's four went for 80. At 7:54 of the second, Olugbode caught a nine-yard ball and fumbled at the Arkansas-Pine Bluff 26, forced by Michael Henderson, a snap worth nearly four points against Missouri. "That one is on me," Olugbode told PowerMizzou. The defensive table's "EPA denied" counts tackles and breakups, not takeaways, so that fumble sits outside Henderson's +0.1.
Elijah Dotson took the ball off Garrison Davis; Jason Dowell got the sack
Elijah Dotson intercepted Garrison Davis, the only pass either team picked off, and added a tackle for loss and a forced fumble. The play-by-play logs the interception without a down or a spot, so the line is all there is of it. Dowell had Missouri's sack and a tackle for loss. CJ Bass III broke up a pass and stopped Chris Hicks after a yard at 2:57 of the fourth. Brody Jones had a tackle for loss.
"We just need to protect the football. We need to be able to tackle in space," Hampton told the Pine Bluff Commercial beforehand. Nate Walker made seven tackles with a tackle for loss and took about three points off Missouri's board, more than any defender on the field. Derick Simon Jr. had 5.5 tackles and split a sack with Machai Campbell, and Danarius Hilliard added five tackles and a stop behind the line.
Matt Zollers ran the third quarter Drinkwitz called disappointing
Simmons came out after six possessions, and Zollers took the last series of the first half, so the scoreless third quarter was backups from the start. The Columbia Missourian reported Drinkwitz substituted heavily after the break and pulled most starters, and a nine-play Zollers drive in the quarter ended in a punt. Drinkwitz did not stop at personnel: "Very disappointed in the third quarter from an overall intensity standpoint, a coaching standpoint." Hampton called winning that quarter a good sign.
Zollers threw for 87 yards on 12 attempts, went 0 for 3 on third down and ran in a five-yard touchdown at 10:00 of the fourth, all of it after 40-0. He started three SEC games as a true freshman last season, the first Missouri freshman to start there since Drew Lock in 2015, and completed 47 of 88 for 503 yards. Drinkwitz's sharpest line went to John Papuchis' special teams: "We don't have multiple numbers on the field. We don't run into kickers."
Davis went 1 for 6 on third down and threw for 50 yards on 13 attempts before Jack Schierholz took over, threw for 67 and found David Brewer IV from 16 yards at 6:13 of the fourth. Arkansas-Pine Bluff's first points came at 2:31 of the third, Za'Marion Webber running left for 27 against Missouri's second unit; he finished with 56 yards on seven carries.
Jamal Roberts led Missouri in rushing with 47 yards
Jamal Roberts started in Ahmad Hardy's place, scored from a yard out at 12:56 of the second and led the Tigers in rushing with 47 yards, per the Associated Press. He is not an emergency body: Drinkwitz installed him out of fall camp, his teammates voted him a captain and he ran for 753 yards last season. Preston Hatfield, making his debut, added 34 yards on four carries and a nine-yard touchdown at 3:49.
Hardy ran for 1,649 yards last season at 6.4 an attempt and broke Missouri's single-season record in the Gator Bowl, past Cody Schrader's 1,627. He was shot in the upper leg on May 10 leaving a concert in Laurel, Mississippi; ABC17 reported the bullet struck bone and that his July 20 clearance only opened a five-to-eight-week protocol. He had still not practiced as of Sept. 8. Missouri's leading rusher gained 47 on a defense that gave up 54 points.
Chip Lindsey's first Missouri call sheet came out of the shotgun
Games since 2019 whose shape most resembles this one — matched on how close the margin was, how far the result ran from the spread, and how each offense performed against its own season norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Chip Lindsey was hired Dec. 21, 2025 out of a season as Michigan's coordinator, ABC17 reported, replacing Kirby Moore, who took nine staff and front-office people to Washington State by 247Sports' count, tight ends coach Derham Cato among them. "We told Chip to run his runs and throw his throws, so we just called them all the way," Drinkwitz said. Both of Simmons' first-quarter touchdowns came out of no-huddle shotgun, as did Hatfield's. Simmons goes to Kansas next with 19 attempts of Missouri evidence behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
