Tarleton State vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TARLTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 10:45BGSUTravis Kenner 35 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 14:52TARLAlejandro De La Poza 26 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 4:45BGSUTravis Kenner 40 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:03BGSUAustyn Dendy 3 Yd Run (Travis Kenner Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:31TARLMarquis Willis 7 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:44TARLAlejandro De La Poza 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:39TARLTanner Schmidt 24 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 40% success rate
It came down to the final possessions. What separated Tarleton State from Bowling Green.
Hold your breath — it earned it. Tarleton State edges Bowling Green, 20-13 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. One possession separated them for most of the night. Kaden Anderson threw for 206 yards on 24 attempts with two touchdowns and ran six times for 8 yards.
- PassKaden Anderson 16/24, 206 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTylan Hines 26 CAR, 250 YDS
- RecB.J. Fleming 3 REC, 57 YDS
- PassJay Kastantin 24/30, 262 YDS
- RushAustyn Dendy 15 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Scoby 10 REC, 102 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTARL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:41BGSU +65%
Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU20 (#43 C.Robinson)
- Q4 10:03TARL +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to #7 M.Willis thrown to BGSU40 broken up by #1 D.Braxton PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (#1 D.Braxton) 15…
- Q3 3:40TARL +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#3 D.Pringle)
- Q4 10:45BGSU +13%
#12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD
- Q4 7:39BGSU +12%
#2 N.Amachree rush right for 1 yard gain to the BGSU44 (#1 J.Aubert; #2 J.Postell)
- Q3 12:42BGSU +7%
Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU11, for 1 yard to the BGSU16 (#5 S.Woods Jr.), out of bounds
FAQ
What was the final score of Tarleton State vs. Bowling Green?
Tarleton State 20, Bowling Green 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TARL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 464 | Total yards | 366 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 262 |
| 258 | Rushing yards | 104 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 24/30 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 7.8 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-62 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 25:07 | Possession | 34:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:23 BGSU punt on 4th & 9 at TARL 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:45BGSUTravis Kenner 35 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q4 14:52TARLAlejandro De La Poza 26 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 4:45BGSUTravis Kenner 40 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 1:03BGSUAustyn Dendy 3 Yd Run (Travis Kenner Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:31TARLMarquis Willis 7 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:44TARLAlejandro De La Poza 23 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:39TARLTanner Schmidt 24 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -13.4 (78% to win) — 11.9 points clear of BGSU's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #9 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →Kaden Anderson produced five of Tarleton State's seven explosive plays
It came down to the final possessions. What separated Tarleton State from Bowling Green.
The snaps that mattered
Three plays carried most of the swing. Tylan Hines's 72-yard run on 1st-and-10 at Q2 05:55. Then Tylan Hines's 83-yard run on 1st-and-10 at Q4 01:56. Later, Tylan Hines's 0-yard run that came up short on 3rd-and-7 at Q4 01:35.
How we got here
Tarleton State struck first through Kaden Anderson, led 17-7 at the half and Bowling Green got the final points on a late field goal by Travis Kenner.
Third down decided the possession count
Bowling Green converted 6 of 13 third downs (46%) to Tarleton State's 10%, led by Jay Kastantin (6/12) and Jeremiah Scoby (3/5). Bowling Green produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Tarleton State's 7: Jay Kastantin (involved in 10), Jeremiah Scoby (involved in 4) and Winn Sharp (involved in 2). Tarleton State won anyway.
The difference-makers
Kaden Anderson threw for 206 yards on 24 attempts with two touchdowns and ran six times for 8 yards, with that score from inside the 20 and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Tylan Hines ran 26 times for 250 yards and caught two passes for 47 yards, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Marquis Willis caught four passes for 52 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. For Bowling Green, Jay Kastantin threw for 262 yards on 30 attempts and ran nine times for 17 yards — six third-down conversions and a hand in 10 plays of 15 yards or more. Jeremiah Scoby caught 10 passes for 102 yards, with three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Austyn Dendy ran 15 times for 60 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20. Jadan Aubert was the disruptive one for Tarleton State: 1 forced fumble, 4.5 tackles.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A nervy, earned win for Tarleton State; Bowling Green was one play from flipping it. Austyn Dendy was responsible for 6 of Bowling Green's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →