Liberty vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsJMU
- Q4 8:33LIBD. Purdie pass to M. Jackson for 34 yds, for a TD (C. Reeves KICK)13–20
- Q3 11:11JMUMorgan Suarez 32 Yd Field Goal 9–20
- Q2 0:00LIBChase Reeves 42 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 1:53JMUJC Evans pass to C. Scott for 5 yds, for a TD (M. Suarez KICK)3–17
- Q2 5:57JMUMorgan Suarez 46 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 8:57LIBChase Reeves 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 4:23JMUG. Pettaway run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Suarez KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
One score, all night. The plays that put James Madison ahead for good.
Hold your breath — it earned it. James Madison holds off Liberty, 20-13 at Bridgeforth Stadium. It stayed within one score late, and James Madison made the plays down the stretch. JC Evans threw for 61 yards on nine attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 69 yards.
- PassDeshawn Purdie 17/27, 230 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKam Davis 16 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecMakai Jackson 3 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJC Evans 7/9, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJC Evans 9 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecNoah Grevious 4 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 15:00JMU +15%
PENALTY JMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from JMU35 to JMU20. NO PLAY
- Q2 4:50JMU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short left to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 03, for 5 yards to the LU 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:01LIB +11%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at JMU04, for 34 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:25JMU +11%
#11 P.Rea punt 45 yards to the LU 20 fair catch by #2 M.Jackson at LU 20
- Q4 2:16JMU +10%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #87 L.Johnson, Jr. thrown to JMU40 broken up by #24 J.Harvey, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
- Q4 7:25LIB +8%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush right for 6 yards gain to the LU 26 (#93 M.McMullin; #24 J.Harvey)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. James Madison?
Liberty 13, James Madison 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| LIB | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Total yards | 291 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 118 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 12-82 | Penalties | 8-92 |
| 37:17 | Possession | 22:43 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:40 LIB go for it on 4th & 6 at JMU 11. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:33LIBD. Purdie pass to M. Jackson for 34 yds, for a TD (C. Reeves KICK)13–20
- Q3 11:11JMUMorgan Suarez 32 Yd Field Goal 9–20
- Q2 0:00LIBChase Reeves 42 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 1:53JMUJC Evans pass to C. Scott for 5 yds, for a TD (M. Suarez KICK)3–17
- Q2 5:57JMUMorgan Suarez 46 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 8:57LIBChase Reeves 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 4:23JMUG. Pettaway run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Suarez KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1770, LIB Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -4.4 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#83) | CORE overall | +7.7 (#40) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / -8 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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James Madison holds off Liberty, 20-13
One score, all night. The plays that put James Madison ahead for good.
The plays that turned it
It came down to a few snaps. Seth Cromwell's 51-yard run on 2nd-and-7 at Q2 04:50. Then Deshawn Purdie's 0-yard attempt to Jamari Person that came up short on 4th-and-6 at Q4 11:40. Later, Deshawn Purdie's 23-yard throw to Jaylon Coleman on 3rd-and-6 at Q4 10:01.
How it unfolded
James Madison struck first through George Pettaway, led 17-6 at the half and Liberty got the final points on a late touchdown by Deshawn Purdie.
The standouts
JC Evans threw for 61 yards on nine attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 69 yards — that score from inside the 20. Corey Scott caught four passes for 21 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20. George Pettaway ran 15 times for 47 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. For Liberty, Makai Jackson caught three passes for 73 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Deshawn Purdie threw for 230 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown — four third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Jaylon Coleman ran three times for 18 yards and caught three passes for 37 yards. Jayon Harvey was the disruptive one for James Madison: 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 5 tackles.
Who got home
Two names to keep: Izaiah Guy (1 INT) for Liberty and Jayon Harvey (1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 5 tackles) for James Madison.
The number
The closing line had James Madison -6.0. James Madison covered. The total was 50.5; the teams combined for 33, an under. JC Evans accounted for 6 of James Madison's points.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
James Madison made the closing plays Liberty didn't. That's the whole story. Makai Jackson was responsible for 6 of Liberty's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →