San Diego State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsSJSU
- Q3 2:37SDSUDonny Hageman 39 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 9:48SDSUChase Price 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)27–7
- Q3 11:02SDSUDonny Hageman 25 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:18SDSUDonny Hageman 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:27SJSUKenny Potter 1 Yd Run (Austin Lopez Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:38SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 38 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:02SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 13 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SJSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassMaxwell Smith 10/14, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 20 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonnel Pumphrey 3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKenny Potter 14/24, 113 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMalike Roberson 5 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecMalike Roberson 2 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:02SDSU +18%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
- Q2 11:38SDSU +14%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
- Q2 4:27SJSU +14%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
- Q2 0:18SDSU +13%
Donny Hageman 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:02SDSU +6%
Donny Hageman 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:48SDSU +6%
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. San José State?
San Diego State 30, San José State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SDSU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | Total yards | 148 |
| 144 | Passing yards | 113 |
| 233 | Rushing yards | 35 |
| 23 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/14 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 10.3 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-76 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 34:27 | Possession | 25:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:21 SDSU punt on 4th & 6 at SJSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:37SDSUDonny Hageman 39 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q3 9:48SDSUChase Price 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)27–7
- Q3 11:02SDSUDonny Hageman 25 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:18SDSUDonny Hageman 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 4:27SJSUKenny Potter 1 Yd Run (Austin Lopez Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:38SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 38 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:02SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 13 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1308, SDSU Elo 1408 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +1.6 (47% to win) — 4.1 points clear of SDSU's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #87 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →San Diego State leads 23–11–2 · 22% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.2 (#32) | CORE overall | -4.2 (#81) |
| +1 / -10 | offense / defense | +1 / +5 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 1.13 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -16 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →