Air Force vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsUNM
- Q4 2:57UNMJhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)35–47
- Q4 3:08AFTimothy McVey 56 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)35–40
- Q4 4:01UNMLamar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–40
- Q4 14:26AFTimothy McVey 26 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)28–34
- Q3 2:30AFTimothy McVey 61 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:55UNMZack Rogers 41 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q2 0:52UNMRichard McQuarley 44 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–31
- Q2 2:30AFTimothy McVey 75 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:40UNMZack Rogers 27 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 10:01UNMRichard McQuarley 16 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:08UNMJhurell Pressley 75 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:19AFTimothy McVey 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:17UNMJhurell Pressley 57 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassKarson Roberts 6/16, 167 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushTimothy McVey 12 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTimothy McVey 5 REC, 157 YDS, 3 TD
- PassLamar Jordan 4/9, 135 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJhurell Pressley 17 CAR, 170 YDS, 3 TD
- RecReece White 1 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:26AF +29%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
- Q4 2:57UNM +25%
Jhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)
- Q2 0:52UNM +24%
Richard McQuarley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 4:01UNM +21%
Lamar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q2 10:01UNM +21%
Richard McQuarley run for 16 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q1 6:08UNM +19%
Jhurell Pressley run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. New Mexico?
Air Force 35, New Mexico 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 512 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 222 | Rushing yards | 377 |
| 14 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/16 | Comp/Att | 4/9 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 15.0 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-14 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 23:17 | Possession | 36:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:40 AF punt on 4th & 4 at AF 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.33 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:57UNMJhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)35–47
- Q4 3:08AFTimothy McVey 56 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)35–40
- Q4 4:01UNMLamar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–40
- Q4 14:26AFTimothy McVey 26 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)28–34
- Q3 2:30AFTimothy McVey 61 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:55UNMZack Rogers 41 Yd Field Goal 14–34
- Q2 0:52UNMRichard McQuarley 44 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–31
- Q2 2:30AFTimothy McVey 75 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)14–24
- Q2 2:40UNMZack Rogers 27 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 10:01UNMRichard McQuarley 16 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–21
- Q1 6:08UNMJhurell Pressley 75 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:19AFTimothy McVey 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:17UNMJhurell Pressley 57 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1289, AF Elo 1624 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM +11 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #34 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Air Force leads 26–16 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#59) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#108) |
| +3 / +0 | offense / defense | -7 / +10 |
| 2.68 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -27 | pass over expected | -22 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →