Florida State vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:20FSUDalvin Cook 29 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)27–2
- Q4 6:17FSUDalvin Cook 15 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)20–2
- Q4 8:58FLATeam Safety 13–2
- Q3 5:21FSURoberto Aguayo 51 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 7:47FSUJeremy Kerr 1 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)10–0
- Q2 12:11FSURoberto Aguayo 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassSean Maguire 14/28, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDalvin Cook 26 CAR, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKermit Whitfield 2 REC, 52 YDS
- PassTreon Harris 19/38, 134 YDS
- RushKelvin Taylor 24 CAR, 136 YDS
- RecJake McGee 4 REC, 34 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:47FSU +20%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jeremy Kerr for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
- Q2 12:11FSU +9%
Roberto Aguayo 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 5:21FSU +9%
Roberto Aguayo 51 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:15FSU +7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36
- Q3 14:05FSU +5%
Sean Maguire sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the FlaSt 13 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sean Maguire) to the FlaSt 13
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Florida?
Florida State 27, Florida 2.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 262 |
| 160 | Passing yards | 134 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/28 | Comp/Att | 19/39 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-52 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 27:35 | Possession | 32:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:27 FSU punt on 4th & 9 at FLA 9. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 2.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:20FSUDalvin Cook 29 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)27–2
- Q4 6:17FSUDalvin Cook 15 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)20–2
- Q4 8:58FLATeam Safety 13–2
- Q3 5:21FSURoberto Aguayo 51 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 7:47FSUJeremy Kerr 1 Yd pass from Sean Maguire (Roberto Aguayo Kick)10–0
- Q2 12:11FSURoberto Aguayo 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1863, FSU Elo 1872 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -2 (57% to win) — 2.5 points clear of FLA's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #79 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #57 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Florida leads 39–29–2 · Florida has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.3 (#9) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#35) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | -1 / -11 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 1.47 | allowed / drive | 1.30 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →