Washington State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsORE
- 2OT 0:00WSURobert Lewis 4 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)45–38
- OT 0:00WSULuke Falk 1 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)38–38
- OT 0:00OREBralon Addison 9 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)31–38
- Q4 0:01WSUDom Williams 8 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)31–31
- Q4 3:53WSUErik Powell 22 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 8:20ORERoyce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:55ORERoyce Freeman 17 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)21–24
- Q3 12:39WSUTavares Martin Jr. 27 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:09WSUGabe Marks 4 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:44ORERoyce Freeman 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–17
- Q1 6:06ORETaylor Alie 8 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:22OREAidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:42WSUGabe Marks 7 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassLuke Falk 50/74, 505 YDS, 5 TD
- RushJamal Morrow 8 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecGabe Marks 8 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJeff Lockie 13/22, 123 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRoyce Freeman 27 CAR, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBralon Addison 8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:01WSU +98%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
- OT 0:00WSU +48%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the WshSt 23 Jeff Lockie pass intercepted Shalom Luani return for 3 yds to the WshSt 3
- OT 0:00ORE +39%
Jeff Lockie pass intercepted Shalom Luani return for 3 yds to the WshSt 3
- Q4 1:58ORE +36%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 23 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST down
- Q3 3:55ORE +25%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Royce Freeman for 17 yds for a TD WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
- Q3 12:39WSU +23%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Oregon?
Washington State 45, Oregon 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 641 | Total yards | 533 |
| 505 | Passing yards | 123 |
| 136 | Rushing yards | 410 |
| 31 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 50/75 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 8.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 32:52 | Possession | 27:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:51 ORE punt on 4th & 4 at WSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00WSURobert Lewis 4 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)45–38
- OT 0:00WSULuke Falk 1 Yd Run (Erik Powell Kick)38–38
- OT 0:00OREBralon Addison 9 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)31–38
- Q4 0:01WSUDom Williams 8 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)31–31
- Q4 3:53WSUErik Powell 22 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 8:20ORERoyce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:55ORERoyce Freeman 17 Yd pass from Jeff Lockie (Aidan Schneider Kick)21–24
- Q3 12:39WSUTavares Martin Jr. 27 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:09WSUGabe Marks 4 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:44ORERoyce Freeman 2 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–17
- Q1 6:06ORETaylor Alie 8 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:22OREAidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:42WSUGabe Marks 7 Yd pass from Luke Falk (Erik Powell Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1766, WSU Elo 1444 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -15.3 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #7 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Oregon leads 52–37–6 · Oregon has won 5 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| WSU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#41) | CORE overall | +14.2 (#23) |
| +6 / -2 | offense / defense | +16 / +2 |
| 2.43 | points / drive | 2.92 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +31 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →