Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsLT
- Q4 4:26USMDevonta Foster 26 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Brauchle Kick)58–24
- Q4 10:23LTTrent Taylor 19 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)51–24
- Q4 13:56USMIto Smith 11 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)51–17
- Q4 14:20USMIto Smith 17 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle PAT failed)44–17
- Q4 14:41USMIto Smith 57 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)38–17
- Q3 2:09USMKorey Robertson 1 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)31–17
- Q3 5:11LTKenneth Dixon 43 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–17
- Q2 1:44LTKenneth Dixon 22 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–10
- Q2 4:10USMStephen Brauchle 21 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 10:06USMMichael Thomas 7 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)21–3
- Q2 12:06USMJalen Richard 1 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:33LTJonathan Barnes 47 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:17USMJalen Richard 22 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.1
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassNick Mullens 24/37, 386 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushIto Smith 22 CAR, 169 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMike Thomas 7 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJeff Driskel 27/44, 355 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushPaul Turner 1 CAR, 7 YDS
- RecPaul Turner 6 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:06USM +21%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q3 5:11LT +21%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 43 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
- Q3 2:09USM +19%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q1 8:17USM +19%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 22 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q2 10:06USM +17%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q2 1:44LT +12%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss 58, Louisiana Tech 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 555 | Total yards | 405 |
| 386 | Passing yards | 407 |
| 169 | Rushing yards | -2 |
| 25 | First downs | 27 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/37 | Comp/Att | 32/51 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | -0.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 2-6 |
| 30:04 | Possession | 29:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:10 USM field goal on 4th & 3 at LT 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26USMDevonta Foster 26 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Brauchle Kick)58–24
- Q4 10:23LTTrent Taylor 19 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)51–24
- Q4 13:56USMIto Smith 11 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)51–17
- Q4 14:20USMIto Smith 17 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle PAT failed)44–17
- Q4 14:41USMIto Smith 57 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)38–17
- Q3 2:09USMKorey Robertson 1 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)31–17
- Q3 5:11LTKenneth Dixon 43 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–17
- Q2 1:44LTKenneth Dixon 22 Yd pass from Jeff Driskel (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–10
- Q2 4:10USMStephen Brauchle 21 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 10:06USMMichael Thomas 7 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)21–3
- Q2 12:06USMJalen Richard 1 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:33LTJonathan Barnes 47 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:17USMJalen Richard 22 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1738, USM Elo 1600 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -7.9 (71% to win) — 2.4 points clear of LT's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #63 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Southern Miss leads 20–13 · 39% have been one-possession games
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#36) | CORE overall | +10.8 (#34) |
| +8 / -2 | offense / defense | +8 / -3 |
| 3.11 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 2.05 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →