Stanford vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsUSC
- Q4 2:27STANConrad Ukropina 46 Yd Field Goal 41–31
- Q4 9:19USCAlex Wood 36 Yd Field Goal 38–31
- Q4 11:21STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)38–28
- Q3 4:55STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)31–28
- Q3 10:08USCSteven Mitchell Jr. 1 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)24–28
- Q2 0:03STANDevon Cajuste 17 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)24–21
- Q2 3:53STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)17–21
- Q2 9:29USCJuJu Smith-Schuster 54 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)10–21
- Q2 12:44STANConrad Ukropina 42 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 0:53USCSteven Mitchell Jr. 6 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:49STANAustin Hooper 16 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:05USCTre Madden 5 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKevin Hogan 18/23, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChristian McCaffrey 26 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecAustin Hooper 4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCody Kessler 25/32, 272 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTre Madden 9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJuJu Smith-Schuster 8 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:21STAN +32%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
- Q3 4:55STAN +29%
Remound Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
- Q3 10:08USC +23%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Wood KICK)
- Q2 0:03STAN +23%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 17 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
- Q4 5:30STAN +19%
Remound Wright run for no gain to the Stanf 46
- Q1 2:49STAN +15%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. USC?
Stanford 41, USC 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 474 | Total yards | 427 |
| 279 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 195 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 26 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/24 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 11.6 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 8-87 |
| 39:29 | Possession | 20:31 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:46 USC punt on 4th & 2 at USC 14. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:27STANConrad Ukropina 46 Yd Field Goal 41–31
- Q4 9:19USCAlex Wood 36 Yd Field Goal 38–31
- Q4 11:21STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)38–28
- Q3 4:55STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)31–28
- Q3 10:08USCSteven Mitchell Jr. 1 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)24–28
- Q2 0:03STANDevon Cajuste 17 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)24–21
- Q2 3:53STANRemound Wright 1 Yd Run (Conrad Ukropina Kick)17–21
- Q2 9:29USCJuJu Smith-Schuster 54 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)10–21
- Q2 12:44STANConrad Ukropina 42 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 0:53USCSteven Mitchell Jr. 6 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Alex Wood Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:49STANAustin Hooper 16 Yd pass from Kevin Hogan (Conrad Ukropina Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:05USCTre Madden 5 Yd Run (Alex Wood Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1913, STAN Elo 1758 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -8.6 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #55 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #2 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →USC leads 66–33–3 · USC has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.3 (#11) | CORE overall | +17.9 (#15) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | +11 / -7 |
| 3.38 | points / drive | 2.59 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →