Army vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsRICE
- Q4 0:24RICEZach Wright 12 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (Hayden Tobola Kick)31–38
- Q4 2:13ARMYDaniel Grochowski 19 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 5:58ARMYAaron Kemper 24 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)28–31
- Q4 10:37RICENate German 7 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (Hayden Tobola Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:10ARMYJohn Trainor 23 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:00RICEHayden Tobola 25 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 3:01ARMYA.J. Schurr 6 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:43RICELuke Turner 2 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:14ARMYDeAndre Bell 16 Yd pass from A.J. Schurr (Daniel Grochowski Kick)7–14
- Q1 12:47RICESamuel Stewart 1 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:38RICEDarik Dillard 34 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARMY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassA.J. Schurr 2/8, 18 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAaron Kemper 14 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeAndre Bell 1 REC, 16 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDriphus Jackson 20/30, 267 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDarik Dillard 10 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTemi Alaka 6 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:13ARMY +34%
Daniel Grochowski 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 5:58ARMY +33%
Aaron Kemper run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
- Q4 2:13RICE +32%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 17 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:24RICE +29%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 12 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
- Q3 3:10ARMY +23%
John Trainor run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
- Q4 10:37RICE +22%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 7 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Rice?
Army 31, Rice 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.
| ARMY | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 432 |
| 18 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 378 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 2/10 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 1.8 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-24 | Penalties | 8-64 |
| 31:36 | Possession | 28:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 2:13 ARMY field goal on 4th & 2 at RICE 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:24RICEZach Wright 12 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (Hayden Tobola Kick)31–38
- Q4 2:13ARMYDaniel Grochowski 19 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 5:58ARMYAaron Kemper 24 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)28–31
- Q4 10:37RICENate German 7 Yd pass from Driphus Jackson (Hayden Tobola Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:10ARMYJohn Trainor 23 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)21–24
- Q2 0:00RICEHayden Tobola 25 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 3:01ARMYA.J. Schurr 6 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)14–21
- Q2 3:43RICELuke Turner 2 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:14ARMYDeAndre Bell 16 Yd pass from A.J. Schurr (Daniel Grochowski Kick)7–14
- Q1 12:47RICESamuel Stewart 1 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:38RICEDarik Dillard 34 Yd Run (Hayden Tobola Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1274, ARMY Elo 1246 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -3.5 (60% to win) — 3.5 points clear of RICE's market line of PK. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #18 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Army leads 5–4–1 · Army has won 4 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#95) | CORE overall | -19.3 (#113) |
| -4 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / +18 |
| 1.97 | points / drive | 1.99 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 3.35 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -34 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →