Cincinnati vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsUSF
- Q4 6:57USFTyre McCants 2 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Michael Hill Kick)27–65
- Q4 11:22CINTion Green 11 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)27–58
- Q3 2:33USFSteven Bench 14 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)20–58
- Q3 5:05CINChris Moore 54 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)20–51
- Q3 7:01CINTion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)13–51
- Q3 11:22CINAndrew Gantz 39 Yd Field Goal 6–51
- Q2 0:00USFEmilio Nadelman 49 Yd Field Goal 3–51
- Q2 2:38USFMarlon Mack 10 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)3–48
- Q2 8:58USFSean Price 46 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)3–41
- Q2 9:17CINAndrew Gantz 44 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 13:48USFDeatrick Nichols 29 Yd Interception Return (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–34
- Q1 3:56USFMarlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–27
- Q1 7:52USFJordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–20
- Q1 12:17USFSean Price 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–13
- Q1 14:45USFRodney Adams 67 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
- PassHayden Moore 20/36, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTion Green 10 CAR, 51 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Moore 6 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- PassQuinton Flowers 10/16, 171 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushMarlon Mack 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRodney Adams 4 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:17USF +17%
Sean Price 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
- Q1 7:52USF +14%
Jordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
- Q1 3:56USF +8%
Marlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. South Florida?
Cincinnati 27, South Florida 65.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CIN | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 430 | Total yards | 561 |
| 333 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 355 |
| 25 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 11-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/51 | Comp/Att | 14/21 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-42 | Penalties | 1-11 |
| 31:02 | Possession | 28:58 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:58 CIN punt on 4th & 2 at USF 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:57USFTyre McCants 2 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Michael Hill Kick)27–65
- Q4 11:22CINTion Green 11 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)27–58
- Q3 2:33USFSteven Bench 14 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)20–58
- Q3 5:05CINChris Moore 54 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)20–51
- Q3 7:01CINTion Green 2 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)13–51
- Q3 11:22CINAndrew Gantz 39 Yd Field Goal 6–51
- Q2 0:00USFEmilio Nadelman 49 Yd Field Goal 3–51
- Q2 2:38USFMarlon Mack 10 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)3–48
- Q2 8:58USFSean Price 46 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)3–41
- Q2 9:17CINAndrew Gantz 44 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 13:48USFDeatrick Nichols 29 Yd Interception Return (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–34
- Q1 3:56USFMarlon Mack 28 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–27
- Q1 7:52USFJordan Reed 1 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–20
- Q1 12:17USFSean Price 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)0–13
- Q1 14:45USFRodney Adams 67 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1514, CIN Elo 1661 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF +3.5 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #83 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Cincinnati leads 13–7 · Cincinnati has won 5 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| CIN | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.9 (#50) | CORE overall | +11.4 (#31) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +5 / -6 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →