TCU vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 0:44OKSTChad Whitener 42 Yd Interception Return (Ben Grogan Kick)29–49
- Q4 2:28TCUAaron Green 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–42
- Q4 14:19TCUKolby Listenbee 32 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)23–42
- Q3 8:07OKSTJames Washington 74 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)16–42
- Q3 8:56TCUTrevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)16–35
- Q3 12:08OKSTJ.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)9–35
- Q2 7:57OKSTMarcell Ateman 82 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)9–28
- Q2 13:37OKSTJeff Carr 12 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)9–21
- Q1 3:24TCUJaden Oberkrom 23 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q1 6:02OKSTJames Washington 50 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)6–14
- Q1 6:28TCUTrevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 11:05OKSTJames Washington 48 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.5
- OKST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassTrevone Boykin 35/57, 445 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushAaron Green 24 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShaun Nixon 9 REC, 146 YDS
- PassMason Rudolph 16/24, 352 YDS, 5 TD
- RushRaymond Taylor 9 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecJames Washington 5 REC, 184 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:37OKST +20%
Jeff Carr 12 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
- Q1 6:02OKST +19%
James Washington 50 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
- Q1 11:05OKST +18%
James Washington 48 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
- Q1 6:28TCU +15%
Trevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom PAT blocked)
- Q2 7:57OKST +14%
Marcell Ateman 82 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
- Q1 3:24TCU +8%
Jaden Oberkrom 23 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Oklahoma State?
TCU 29, Oklahoma State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TCU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 663 | Total yards | 456 |
| 445 | Passing yards | 375 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 81 |
| 36 | First downs | 16 |
| 9-19 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 35/58 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 13.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 7-67 |
| 37:06 | Possession | 22:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:55 TCU punt on 4th & 2 at OKST 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:44OKSTChad Whitener 42 Yd Interception Return (Ben Grogan Kick)29–49
- Q4 2:28TCUAaron Green 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–42
- Q4 14:19TCUKolby Listenbee 32 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)23–42
- Q3 8:07OKSTJames Washington 74 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)16–42
- Q3 8:56TCUTrevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)16–35
- Q3 12:08OKSTJ.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)9–35
- Q2 7:57OKSTMarcell Ateman 82 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)9–28
- Q2 13:37OKSTJeff Carr 12 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)9–21
- Q1 3:24TCUJaden Oberkrom 23 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q1 6:02OKSTJames Washington 50 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)6–14
- Q1 6:28TCUTrevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom PAT blocked)6–7
- Q1 11:05OKSTJames Washington 48 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1802, TCU Elo 2026 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +6.6 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #71 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #44 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 17–15–2 · TCU has won 2 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| TCU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.5 (#26) | CORE overall | +6.8 (#47) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | +5 / -1 |
| 2.59 | points / drive | 2.65 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →