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Zach Mathis
Zach Mathis

Zach Mathis

WR·North Dakota State·2023

Zach Mathis is a Slot Specialist WR for North Dakota State. Zach's 2023 season produced 63.7 total EPA across 45 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Mathis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
45 Receptions651 Rec yards6 Rec TD14.5 Yards/rec
Returns
1 Kick returns0 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume15
  • Explosiveness50
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸13 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.18 EPA/play in Wk 15 vs South Dakota.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.180−3.18Wk 1 vs Eastern Washington: +1.47 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Maine: +1.10 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Central Arkansas: +1.41 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs South Dakota: +1.25 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Missouri State: +2.52 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs North Dakota: +1.00 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Western Illinois: +0.02 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Murray State: +0.61 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs South Dakota State: +1.97 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Southern Illinois: -0.21 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Northern Iowa: +0.60 EPA/play12Wk 1 vs Montana: +1.27 EPA/play1Wk 13 vs Drake: +1.57 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Montana State: +1.31 EPA/play14Wk 15 vs South Dakota: +3.18 EPA/play15
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsEastern WashingtonW35-10—45313.30201.47
2vsMaineW44-7—46215.50211.10
3vsCentral ArkansasW49-31—34414.70281.41
5vsSouth DakotaL19-24—44210.50221.25
6@Missouri StateW38-10—616026.72342.52
7@North DakotaL24-49—36521.70531.00
8vsWestern IllinoisW52-7—177.0070.02
9vsMurray StateW38-6—8749.31190.61
10@South Dakota StateL16-33—4399.82151.97
11vsSouthern IllinoisW34-10—133.003-0.21
12@Northern IowaW48-27—2178.50120.60
1@MontanaL29-31—11414.00141.27
13vsDrakeW66-3—13434.00341.57
14@Montana StateW35-34—2157.51121.31
15@South DakotaW45-17—12222.00223.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
5.1%
Passing plays
13.9%
Rushing plays
0.2%
Standard downs
3.6%
Passing downs
8.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.00
Passing downs
1.90
Pass / Rush EPA
1.42 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.