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Xzavier Henderson
Xzavier Henderson

#8Xzavier Henderson

WR·Cincinnati·2024

Xzavier Henderson is a Versatile WR for Cincinnati. Xzavier's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 59 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Xzavier Henderson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
58 Receptions735 Rec yards4 Rec TD12.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume21
  • Explosiveness38
  • Consistency83
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸12 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.78 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.22 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Houston (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.220−3.22Wk 1 vs Towson: +1.18 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Pittsburgh: +1.81 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Miami (OH): +0.81 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Houston: +3.22 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Texas Tech: +1.55 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs UCF: +1.33 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Arizona State: +0.81 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Colorado: +0.40 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs West Virginia: +0.85 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Iowa State: +0.41 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Kansas State: +1.43 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs TCU: +1.31 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsTowsonW38-20—710114.41421.18
2vsPittsburghL27-284.958016.00341.81
3@Miami (OH)W27-161.31010810.80210.81
4vsHoustonW34-0-8.223417.02193.22
5@Texas TechL41-444.3712718.11421.55
7@UCFW19-132.822110.50151.33
8vsArizona StateW24-149.48678.40150.81
9@ColoradoL23-348.111111.00110.40
11vsWest VirginiaL24-312.18688.50110.85
12@Iowa StateL17-3410.311212.00120.41
13@Kansas StateL15-4114.146015.00211.43
14vsTCUL13-2010.834615.30281.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.3%
Passing plays
14.4%
Rushing plays
0.2%
Standard downs
6.6%
Passing downs
9.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.90
Passing downs
1.67
Pass / Rush EPA
1.15 / 2.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.