#44Tyler Warren

TE·Penn State·2024

Tyler Warren is a Versatile TE for Penn State. Tyler's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 144 plays — a elite rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Warren's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

218 Rush yards4 Rush TD26 Carries8.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

104 Receptions1233 Rec yards8 Rec TD11.9 Yards/rec

Punting

1 Punts16 Punt yards16.0 Yards/punt16 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume39
Explosiveness32
Consistency86
Pass-Down87

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.66 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Purdue (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@West Virginia	W34-12	2.1	3	30	10.0	1	19	1.45
2	vsBowling Green	W34-27	-1.8	8	146	18.3	0	30	1.46
4	vsKent State	W56-0	-33.0	5	50	10.0	1	16	1.26
5	vsIllinois	W21-7	9.6	4	34	8.5	0	15	1.04
6	vsUCLA	W27-11	-1.3	3	29	9.7	1	15	1.08
7	@USC	W33-30	11.9	17	224	13.2	1	34	0.85
9	@Wisconsin	W28-13	3.0	7	46	6.6	0	15	0.29
10	vsOhio State	L13-20	31.2	4	47	11.8	0	31	0.81
11	vsWashington	W35-6	3.1	8	75	9.4	0	21	0.70
12	@Purdue	W49-10	-16.2	8	127	15.9	1	38	1.66
13	@Minnesota	W26-25	10.4	8	102	12.8	0	28	0.48
14	vsMaryland	W44-7	-3.9	6	68	11.3	1	20	0.87
15	vsOregon	L37-45	26.0	7	84	12.0	0	28	0.10
20	vsNotre Dame	L24-27	23.9	6	75	12.5	0	27	—
20	vsBoise State	W31-14	10.1	6	63	10.5	2	17	—
20	vsSMU	W38-10	17.5	4	33	8.3	0	15	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.7%

Passing plays

25.8%

Rushing plays

4.5%

Standard downs

12.5%

Passing downs

17.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.76
Passing downs: 0.98
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.81 / 0.91

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).