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Mitchel Collier
Mitchel Collier

#82Mitchel Collier

TE·Central Michigan·2023

Mitchel Collier is a Red Zone Weapon TE for Central Michigan.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.42
    Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.46
    Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mitchel Collier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
10 Receptions88 Rec yards3 Rec TD8.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs TE peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume7
  • Explosiveness12
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down9
Player type
Red Zone Weapon TE

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 1.29 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.62 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.620−2.62Wk 1 vs Michigan State: +0.94 EPA/play1Wk 7 vs Akron: +0.01 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Ball State: +1.05 EPA/play8Wk 10 vs Northern Illinois: +2.62 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Western Michigan: +1.87 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Toledo: +0.81 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@Michigan StateL7-31-6.833010.00130.94
2vsNew HampshireW45-42———————
7vsAkronW17-10-21.6155.0050.01
8@Ball StateL17-24-14.92136.5091.05
10vsNorthern IllinoisW37-31-7.512020.01202.62
11@Western MichiganL28-38-15.92136.52101.87
13vsToledoL17-323.7177.0070.81

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
2.5%
Passing plays
6.0%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
2.3%
Passing downs
2.8%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.31
Passing downs
1.06
Pass / Rush EPA
1.21 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.
Mitchel Collier Stats, EPA & Player Profile — Central Michigan · Gridpex