#9Luke Altmyer

QB·Illinois·20257.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Luke Altmyer is a Dual-Threat QB for Illinois. Luke's 2025 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 431 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke Altmyer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

246/365 Comp/Att3007 Pass yards22 Pass TD5 INT67.4% Comp %

Rushing

242 Rush yards5 Rush TD100 Carries2.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch92

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Purdue (SP+ -6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Illinois	W52-3	—	17/21	217	3	0	89.7	-16	0	0.68
2	@Duke	W45-19	6.6	22/31	296	3	0	85.9	4	0	0.61
3	vsWestern Michigan	W38-0	-1.4	17/26	196	2	0	51.1	0	1	0.36
4	@Indiana	L10-63	32.4	14/22	146	1	0	42.9	-27	0	0.00
5	vsUSC	W34-32	16.9	20/26	328	2	0	97.5	28	1	0.89
6	@Purdue	W43-27	-6.1	19/22	390	1	0	90.9	3	0	0.90
7	vsOhio State	L16-34	30.1	30/44	248	1	1	64.4	-20	0	0.13
9	@Washington	L25-42	18.4	22/34	199	2	2	83.5	48	0	0.32
10	vsRutgers	W35-13	1.0	19/31	235	4	1	88.9	88	1	0.80
12	vsMaryland	W24-6	0.6	15/25	172	2	1	80.5	62	0	0.28
13	@Wisconsin	L10-27	-4.4	21/35	248	0	0	66.0	20	1	0.20
14	vsNorthwestern	W20-13	5.8	10/15	136	0	0	16.5	-2	0	0.21
20	vsTennessee	W30-28	15.0	20/33	196	1	0	69.9	54	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.3%

Passing plays

98.7%

Rushing plays

15.9%

Standard downs

47.9%

Passing downs

73.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.47

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.