#5Justin Thomas

QB·Georgia Tech·20147.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Justin Thomas is a Dual-Threat QB for Georgia Tech. Justin's 2014 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 374 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

96/187 Comp/Att1719 Pass yards18 Pass TD6 INT51.3% Comp %

Rushing

1086 Rush yards8 Rush TD190 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Wofford.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWofford	W38-19	—	11/15	282	2	0	93.7	71	0	0.82
2	@Tulane	W38-21	-15.0	3/8	15	0	1	56.8	70	0	-0.15
3	vsGeorgia Southern	W42-38	-2.4	11/24	188	4	0	95.1	137	1	0.61
4	@Virginia Tech	W27-24	7.8	7/18	125	1	0	76.8	165	1	0.41
6	vsMiami	W28-17	13.9	4/7	53	0	0	71.6	27	1	0.20
7	vsDuke	L25-31	7.0	6/15	61	0	2	46.4	119	0	0.16
8	@North Carolina	L43-48	0.0	8/18	235	3	0	62.4	36	0	0.30
9	@Pittsburgh	W56-28	14.1	5/10	147	1	0	95.2	92	1	0.57
10	vsVirginia	W35-10	4.0	7/13	141	3	1	37.6	4	0	0.34
11	@NC State	W56-23	8.1	5/6	47	0	0	98.8	60	1	0.65
12	vsClemson	W28-6	18.1	8/11	102	1	0	79.7	46	0	0.65
14	@Georgia	W30-24	27.6	6/16	64	1	0	3.5	34	0	-0.05
15	vsFlorida State	L35-37	28.5	8/14	134	1	1	88.4	104	0	0.62
1	vsMississippi State	W49-34	22.2	7/12	125	1	1	98.8	121	3	0.64

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.3%

Passing plays

91.9%

Rushing plays

23.1%

Standard downs

30.2%

Passing downs

59.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.