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Jamari Thrash
Jamari Thrash

#1Jamari Thrash

WR·Louisville·2023

Jamari Thrash is a Slot Specialist WR for Louisville. Jamari's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 75 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jamari Thrash's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
63 Receptions858 Rec yards6 Rec TD13.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume27
  • Explosiveness44
  • Consistency75
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.91 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Indiana (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.910−3.91Wk 1 vs Georgia Tech: +1.31 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Murray State: +2.42 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Indiana: +3.91 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Boston College: +1.60 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs NC State: +0.76 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Notre Dame: +0.96 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Pittsburgh: +1.32 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Duke: +0.50 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Virginia: +0.14 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Miami: +0.45 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Kentucky: +1.33 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Florida State: +0.05 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsGeorgia TechW39-340.378812.62231.31
2vsMurray StateW56-0—38227.31732.42
3vsIndianaW21-14-7.4415939.81853.91
4vsBoston CollegeW56-28-5.957114.21421.60
5@NC StateW13-107.434414.70310.76
6vsNotre DameW33-2020.18759.41140.96
7@PittsburghL21-38-7.3912013.30311.32
9vsDukeW23-09.477310.40200.50
11vsVirginiaW31-24-10.83227.30120.14
12@MiamiW38-319.6177.0070.45
13vsKentuckyL31-3810.566010.00161.33
14vsFlorida StateL6-1619.47578.10130.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
9.3%
Passing plays
19.0%
Rushing plays
0.5%
Standard downs
7.9%
Passing downs
13.3%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.67
Passing downs
1.81
Pass / Rush EPA
1.10 / 0.80

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.