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J.J. Jones
J.J. Jones

#5J.J. Jones

WR·North Carolina·2024

J.J. Jones is a Slot Specialist WR for North Carolina. J.J.'s 2024 season produced 53.4 total EPA across 39 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.J. Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
36 Receptions582 Rec yards6 Rec TD16.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume14
  • Explosiveness61
  • Consistency85
  • Pass-Down49
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.43 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.47 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Pittsburgh (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.470−2.47Wk 1 vs Minnesota: +1.63 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Charlotte: +1.70 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs North Carolina Central: +0.34 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs James Madison: +2.12 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Duke: +1.79 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Pittsburgh: +2.47 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Georgia Tech: +2.33 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Virginia: +1.83 EPA/play9Wk 12 vs Wake Forest: +1.15 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Boston College: +0.55 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs NC State: +0.37 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@MinnesotaW19-1710.435217.30321.63
2vsCharlotteW38-20-15.323115.50181.70
3vsNorth Carolina CentralW45-10—166.0060.34
4vsJames MadisonL50-707.558617.20292.12
5@DukeL20-215.658917.81381.79
6vsPittsburghL24-344.923618.00192.47
7vsGeorgia TechL34-411.936421.31532.33
9@VirginiaW41-14-5.1512925.82371.83
12vsWake ForestW31-24-5.723517.51201.15
13@Boston CollegeL21-411.23237.70120.55
14vsNC StateL30-353.93196.31170.37
20vsUConnL14-271.52126.007—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
5.0%
Passing plays
10.3%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
3.3%
Passing downs
8.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.37
Passing downs
1.37
Pass / Rush EPA
1.37 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.