#11Blake Horvath

QB·Navy·2025

Blake Horvath is a Dual-Threat QB for Navy. Blake's 2025 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 380 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Blake Horvath's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

97/159 Comp/Att1580 Pass yards12 Pass TD6 INT61.0% Comp %

Rushing

1200 Rush yards16 Rush TD224 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat89
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsVMI	W52-7	—	6/7	66	1	0	66.5	14	0	0.54
2	vsUAB	W38-24	-15.8	6/8	168	1	0	60.4	72	2	0.73
3	@Tulsa	W42-23	-10.0	6/10	94	1	2	72.2	159	1	0.42
5	vsRice	W21-13	-14.8	8/13	172	0	1	67.7	110	2	0.55
6	vsAir Force	W34-31	-3.2	20/26	339	3	0	71.2	130	1	0.82
7	@Temple	W32-31	-5.1	6/16	141	1	0	87.8	155	2	0.60
9	vsFlorida Atlantic	W42-32	-8.7	8/12	83	0	0	63.1	174	4	0.33
10	@North Texas	L17-31	13.8	8/14	80	0	2	23.1	112	1	-0.05
12	vsSouth Florida	W41-38	11.6	8/15	147	1	0	59.7	60	0	0.18
14	@Memphis	W28-17	7.6	5/9	100	1	0	93.0	54	1	0.70
16	vsArmy	W17-16	0.8	7/14	82	1	1	20.2	107	1	0.19
20	vsCincinnati	W35-13	4.5	9/15	108	2	0	—	53	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.8%

Passing plays

91.4%

Rushing plays

36.8%

Standard downs

43.7%

Passing downs

66.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).