San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons· FOX· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Market
- Book
- +4.5
- o47.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Atlanta Falcons is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +3.4
- Falcons
- Win prob
- 60%
- 49ers
- Likely range
- -20 to 13
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1429 − 1647 = -8.7 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -5.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -3.4 Falcons
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
49ers
Away
- Our rating
- 1647#7
- FPI rank
- #12026
- Record
- 1-0
- Point diff
- +20+20/g
Falcons
Home
- Our rating
- 1429#21
- FPI rank
- #262026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Falcons 1–1- 2025 wk 7Falcons at 49ers10–2049ers
- 2022 wk 649ers at Falcons14–28Falcons
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
No price history archived for this game.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.