Air Force vs. Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Air Force gets at Wyoming: 3rd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 110th at stuffing runs at the line. Wyoming projects no clear way in against Air Force. Air Force is also 16th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 107th.
How
AFattacks
WYO
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
AF#3 of 138WYO#110 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
AF#16 of 138WYO#107 of 138
The two teams
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at defending the pass, and they are 138th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#138projected
- Defenserunning it#138projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#138projected
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 129th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 129th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1300, AF Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +7.4 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AF82nd104thWYOWYO117th51stAFThrough the air
AF134th95thWYOWYO127th23rdAFOn the ground
AF5th97thWYOWYO86th54thAFStaying on the field
AF30th97thWYOWYO129th43rdAFTaking care of it
AF21st76thWYOWYO133rd46thAF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 32–28–3 · 44% have been one-possession games
| AF | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.9 (#127) | CORE overall | -12.9 (#123) |
| -1 / +14 | offense / defense | -10 / +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Air Force vs. Wyoming?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 68% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Air Force vs. Wyoming?
The model projects Air Force by 7.4.
What time is Air Force vs. Wyoming and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 23, 9:00 PM ET, at War Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →