Boise State vs. Washington State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Boise State gets at Washington State: 30th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 101st at generating havoc. Washington State projects no clear way in against Boise State. Boise State is also 30th in the push up front, against a unit 84th.
How
BOISattacks
WSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS11.2%#30 of 138WSU10.0%#101 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 22% this season, 2 games
BOIS3.56#30 of 138WSU2.99#84 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS48%#56 of 138WSU47%#106 of 138
The two teams
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line11.3%#19 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down44%#29 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss11.2%#30 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.77#138 of 138
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 136th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 106th at shutting down the ground game.
Washington State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve34%#24 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.17#32 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#136 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground47%#106 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1536, BOIS Elo 1606 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU +2.6 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BOIS68th123rdWSUWSU135th137thBOISThrough the air
BOIS94th99thWSUWSU131st138thBOISOn the ground
BOIS28th131stWSUWSU121st80thBOISStaying on the field
BOIS101st125thWSUWSU137th22ndBOISTaking care of it
BOIS1st76thWSUWSU104th76thBOIS
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BOIS | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.3 (#48) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#47) |
| +3 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 0.91 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 45% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Boise State vs. Washington State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Boise State vs. Washington State?
The model projects Boise State by 2.6.
What time is Boise State vs. Washington State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 6:00 PM ET, at Gesa Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →